TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >> 综合指数 2010年 04月 09日 / Composite Index 09/04/2010

综合指数 2010年 04月 09日
如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数精确的在布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）获得扶持，综指随后回弹，惟综指亦精确的在1334点遇阻，以1333.98点闭市。布林中频带目前是综指的动态支持线，综指当前的阻力水平是1334点的费氏线，支持水平则是1308点的费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）收窄10%，这显示综指虽然在布林中频带回弹，不过整体市场综指仍然处于一个调整巩固的格局。一般上当布林频带收窄时，综指将倾向于调整巩固，直到布林频带打开打开为止。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量稍微下调1.9%，不过成交量仍然成功维持在40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）以上，这显示市场仍然活跃，再加上综指并未跌破布林中频带，所以成交量若能持续维持在40天平均值以上是对综指的后市维持强势有正面的作用。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）回弹，虽然并未回到70%的水平，不过只要随机指标未跌破30%的水平，综指的短期走势并不算是形成下跌的趋势。

总的来说，综合指数成功的在布林中频带获得扶持，这是综指当前的动态支持线，以技术而言，只要综指能继续的在布林中频带上获得扶持，那综指将有望恢复上扬的趋势。另一方面，由于随机指标处于70%以下，所以综指也并未有恢复涨势的讯号，这意味着若市场没有出现新的指引，综指接下来有形成横摆巩固的迹象。

Composite Index 09/04/2010
As indicated by A, the KLCI tested the Bollinger Middle Band on Friday and rebounded slightly, and now resisted by the 1335 Fibonacci Retracement, to close at 1333.98 points. The Bollinger Middle Band is still the dynamic support for the KLCI while the immediate resistance is at 1334. Support remains at 1308 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands contracted 10%, suggesting that the consolidation remains intact, and the consolidation of the KLCI is expected to carry on until the re-expansion of the Bollinger Bands.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 1.9%, while still staying firmly above the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that the overall market is still well-participated, and generally, with volume above the 40-day VMA level, the market sentiment is likely to remain positive.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic rebounded, but it has not broken above 70% level, and this implies some improvement of the short term movement of the KLCI.

In conclusion, the KLCI managed to rebound from the Bollinger Middle Band, which is the dynamic support, and this is an important factor suggesting that the immediate technical outlook is still on the positive side, and there is still a chance for the KLCI to resume its uptrend. Meanwhile, with the Stochastic still below 70% level, this suggests that the KLCI short term movement has not returned its bullishness.