TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >> Composite Index 16/04/2010 / 综合指数 2010年 04月 16日

Composite Index 16/04/2010

The FBM KLCI fell inline with the Asia Pacific region with the KLCI losing 6.06 points or 0.5%, to 1332.77 points. This had pointed out that the KLCI has fallen below the 1,334 Fibonacci support level. The KLCI next level of support is at the 1318.53 Fibonacci Retracement. The resistance levels are 1334 points and 1347.6 points Fibonacci lines.

As shown in chart, the Bollinger Bands narrowed 9%, which means that the KLCI is in an adjustment to the pattern of consolidation. In any case the KLCI has fallen below the Bollinger Middle Bands, so if and when the Bollinger Bands begin to expand with the candles below the Mid BB, then the KLCI will form a downward trend, which investors should pay attention at this point.

Figure of arrow B shown in Bursa shares, trading volume fell 25%, the volume dipped below the 40-day volume moving average (VMA) level, which means that investors chose the sidelines during the market consolidations with the reduced strength of pattern and undertake to reduce the dilemma.

Figure C shows the Relative Strength Index >>> the RSI fell below the 70% level, which imply that the KLCI ended the short-term gains significantly weaker. Negativities are ahead and risk of downside increases. And if the RSI fell below 30% then the KLCI immediate term trend will most likely continue to decline.

On the other hand, stochastic indicators (Stochastic) fell below 30% level, which indicates the KLCI's short-term trend downside have started. But fortunately, did not trigger an expansion of the Bollinger Bands. Overall, if the Bollinger Bands should begin to open-up again and the KLCI prices fail to move above the Middle Bollinger Band then the KLCI declining trend is set to continue.

综合指数 2010年 04月 16日

富时综合指数在亚太区域股市纷纷下跌的影响下走低，综指按日下滑6.06点或0.5%，以1332.77点闭市，这也表示综指跌破了1334点的费氏支持水平，综指接下来的支持水平落在1318.53点的费氏线，阻力水平则是1334点及1347.6点的费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）收窄9%，这表示综指仍然处于一个调整巩固的格局，无论如何综指已跌破布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band），所以接下来若布林频带开始打开，那综指将有形成一个下跌的趋势，这是投资者接下来应注意的一点。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量减少25%，所以成交量跌破了40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平，这意味着投资者开始选择离场观望，所以市场在调整时出现的淡静格局及承接力量减低的窘境。

如图中箭头C所示，胜图强弱指标（RSI）跌破70%的水平，这表示综指的中期涨势有提前结束的风险，接下来若胜图强弱指标跌破30%的话，那综指的中期走势将有转为下跌的可能。

另一方面，随机指标（Stochastic）跌破了30%的水平，这表示综指的短期走势有开始转为下跌的可能，所幸的是布林频带并未开始打开。总的来说，接下来若布林频带开始打开，而综指未能重返布林中频带以上，那综指将开始下跌的趋势。