TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >> Composite Index 07/04/2010 / 综合指数 2010年 04月 07日

Composite Index 07/04/2010
As shown on the chart above, the KLCI is still testing the L1 line, while closing sightly above the L1 line, as indicated by A. The KLCI formed a narrow candlestick, suggesting that the direction was indecisive.

Nevertheless, support remains at 1334 and 1308 Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance is still at 1354 Fibonacci Retracement.

Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands did not expand, suggesting that the KLCI movement is unclear. If the Bollinger Bands should contract again, the KLCI would consolidate, and if the Bollinger Bands should re-expand, with the KLCI still above the Bollinger Middle Band, it would be a bullish biased signal.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 1.1%, with volume still above the 40-day VMA level. This again suggests that the overall market is well-participated, thus implying that the market sentiment is still positive.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic remains around 90% level, which suggests that the KLCI short term movement is slightly over-heated, but remains in the bullish territory. Therefore, despite the slightly over-heated condition, the short term movement of the KLCI remains bullish biased.

In conclusion, the uptrend for the KLCI is still intact, with some chance of a technical correction. If the KLCI should correct, the Bollinger Middle Band would be the first target, and provided that the KLCI should rebound from the Bollinger Middle Band or the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the uptrend remains intact.

综合指数 2010年 04月 07日
富时综合指数在稍微上扬后，在套利活动下走低，无论如何，综指精确的在L1上升趋势阻力线获得扶持（参考箭头A），这使到综指形成了一个小阴阳烛（Small Candle），这是综指缺乏明朗趋势的迹象。综指当前的支持水平仍然是1334点及1308点的费氏线，阻力水平则维持在1354点的费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）打开的幅度为0%，这进一步确认综指的后市不明朗，有待进一步的演变。接下来若布林频带再度收窄，综指有进入技术调整的可能，反之若布林频带能进一步打开，综指则有望继续走高。

如图中箭头B所示，在综指微增的同时，马股成交量稍微增加1.1% ，这使到马股仍然能成功守住40天成交量移动平均线（VMA），这显示整体市场交投仍然充足，这对市场接下来能否吸纳套利卖压有着举足轻重的影响。一般上，若成交量减少将暗示综指步入淡静，惟若综指大跌时成交量过高则加剧综指的跌势。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）继续的处于90%以上的水平，这显示综指的短期走势仍然属于过热，惟随机指标高于70%是综指短期走势上扬的讯号。

总的来说，综指短期走势仍然偏向上扬，只是综指同时亦开始有过热的现象，接下来若随机指标跌破70%，那将是综指出现技术调整的第一个讯号，届时布林中频带将成为综指的动态支持线，以技术而言，综指只要能在布林中频带及14、21、31天加权移动平均线（EMA）上获得扶持，那综指的后市仍然有望看高一线。

CAVEAT EMPTOR

Buyers Beware!