TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >> 综合指数 2010年 04月 06日 / Composite Index 06/04/2010

综合指数 2010年 04月 06日
如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数上扬2.62点，稍微突破了L1上升趋势阻力线，这显示综指有突破L1阻力的迹象，无论如何，综指接下来必须持续的处于L1趋势线以上，综指才能真正的摆脱此阻力线。综指当前的支持水平是1334点及1308点的费氏线，阻力水平则维持在1354点的费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）收窄5%，这显示综指的上扬的趋势有缓慢下来的迹象，接下来若布林频带进一步收窄，综指将有出现技术调整的可能，届时布林中频带将成为综指调整的第一目标，布林中频带同时也是综指的动态支持线。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量扬升6.6%，这使到成交量得以保持在40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）以上。成交量的增加是因为市场的交投增加，所以到市场的承接力量也相应增加了，通常这是有助于吸纳在技术调整是的套利卖压，使到综指维持上扬的格局。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）稍微回软，这是综指在短期过热后的迹象，目前随机指标仍然是属于70%以上，所以虽然综指有出现技术调整的可能，不过综指仍然属于短期上扬的格局中，直到随机指标跌破70%为止。

总的来说，综指只上扬0.2%，所以综指其实仍然受到L1上升趋势阻力线的牵引，综指接下来必须技术保持在L1以上，否则综指将有在阻力线遇阻后形成技术调整的可能。无论如何，只要综指接下来能在布林中频带及14、21、31天加权移动平均线（EMA）以上获得扶持，那综指整体的上扬趋势仍然算是完整的。

Composite Index 06/04/2010
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI rose 2.62 points, and breaking the L1 resistance line by margin. The immediate support is at 1334 followed by the 1308 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance is at 1354 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands contracted 5%, suggesting that the upside volatility of the KLCI is gradually declining, and if the Bollinger Bands should continue to contract, the KLCI would consolidate, or have its technical correction, and the Bollinger Middle Band shall be the first target of the correction for it is a dynamic support for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 6.6%, with volume above the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that the overall market is still actively participated, thus the positive market sentiment is likely to be sustainable.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic retreated slightly, but it is still above 70%, which suggests that the short term bullish signal is still intact. If the Stochastic should break below the 70% level, it would be a signal suggesting a beginning of a technical correction.

In conclusion, the KLCI only gained 0.2%, and therefore, the L1 resistance is still effective, and there is still a chance of a correction. Nevertheless, provided that the KLCI should remain supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the uptrend is still intact.