Optimistic Week Ahead For Global Markets

Wall St. >>> Jobs, Profit hopes may drive rally
Optimism about an improving labor market and corporate profits could propel U.S. stocks higher next week as earnings season approaches. Analysts expect trading at the week's outset to be dictated by Friday's non-farm payrolls report, which showed the economy added 162,000 jobs in March, the fastest pace of growth in three years. U.S. markets were closed for the Good Friday holiday.

"Things have been getting better. There's no question about it. We've had a remarkable V-shaped recovery since last March," said Alan Valdes, director of floor operations for Kabrik Trading in New York. The market could have momentum on its side as investors turn their attention to what is expected to be a strong earnings season.

The broad Standard & Poor's 500 .SPX achieved its fourth consecutive quarterly gain this week and scored its best monthly rise since last July. For the first quarter, the S&P 500 climbed 4.9 percent. For March alone, it gained 5.9 percent. On Thursday, the S&P ended at 1,178.10 -- an 18-month high. For the short holiday week, it was up 1 percent.

The Dow .DJI, meanwhile, has its sights set on the psychologically important 11,000 level, which could be taken out Monday if there is enough enthusiasm over the jobs report. The payrolls data will lend support to markets, as U.S. stock futures rallied on Friday in the wake of the release. Private hiring was stronger than anticipated, bolstering the view the economy is starting to find its footing and, as a result, needs less government support.

However, with the S&P 500 stock index up 74 percent from the March 2009 closing low, some worry the rally will be interrupted if the economy does not maintain its strength. "The road to a self-sustaining economic recovery, which is the thesis of the bullish cabal, is going to be tested," said Doug Kass, president of Seabreeze Partners Management, in Palm Beach, Florida.

As well as the payrolls report, investors will take in minutes from the Fed's rate-setting meeting in March, and a round of data that includes February pending home sales and an ISM survey on the U.S. services sector for March.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak to the Dallas Regional Chamber of Commerce on Wednesday. Investors will watch for any additional details on the Fed's plans to unwind its stimulus measures. In a relatively light week for data, one of the more influential reports will come on Monday with the Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index for March. This ISM index, which assesses activity in the huge U.S. services sector, is forecast to rise to 54.0 in March from 53.0 in February, according to economists polled by Reuters.

February pending home sales, also due on Monday, are expected to dip 0.1 percent, improving from January's sharp drop of 7.6 percent. Friday's wholesale inventories report for February is expected to show a gain of 0.4 percent from a revised loss of 0.1 percent in January.

Subdued YEN & US Jobs Data Lift Regional Markets Asian shares advanced in thin Easter holiday trading yesterday on a weaker yen and a more upbeat economic outlook for manufacturers, as markets expected positive US jobs data later in the day.

The increases came as the US dollar's recent strength against the Japanese currency boosted prospects for exporters' repatriated earnings.

Tokyo's Nikkei closed up 0.37 per cent while Shanghai rose 0.33 per cent and Taipei added 0.16 per cent. Seoul advanced 0.25 per cent at the close.

"As the market has kept rising in a short period of time, investors want to sell to take profits at some point," Mamoru Nakajo, manager at Phoenix Securities, told Dow Jones Newswires. "But since other markets are strong, they find themselves having to chase the Japan market higher."

Sentiment remained buoyed by HSBC and government data on Thursday showing that Chinese manufacturing picked up in March and a Bank of Japan survey saying manufacturers were at their most optimistic about the economy since September 2008.

Japan's Dai-ichi Life Insurance, which saw a huge debut Thursday, continued to rise, settling up 1.56 per cent at 162,500 yen. It "will likely keep rising next week", an analyst said.

The insurer made its debut on Thursday at 160,000 yen against an IPO price of 140,000 yen.

Chinese shares closed up 0.33 per cent in cautious trade with mining stocks leading the gains amid expectations of increasing demand, dealers said.

The Shanghai Composite Index was up 10.54 points at 3,157.96. It was the index's highest closing level since it hit 3,158.86 on January 21. The key index gained 3.2 per cent over the week, its biggest weekly gain in 10 weeks.

"The focus on resource companies has contributed to the market's firmer footing, which should help the index continue its positive momentum in the coming sessions," said Zheng Weigang, an analyst at Shanghai Securities.

Coal miners led Friday's gains because of higher coal prices caused by severe drought in southwestern China, which has disrupted hydropower output.

The Taiwan weighted index closed up 12.84 points or 0.16 per cent at 8,025,9amid rotational buying, dealers said.

"After the market stood above the key 8,000-point level on Thursday, market sentiment has turned cautious about strong resistance ahead," Grand Cathay Securities analyst Mars Hsu said, adding that he expected the bourse to trade in a narrow range next week.

* South Korean shares closed 0.25 per cent higher, with gains in blue chips on expectations of good first-quarter earnings.

The benchmark Kospi ended up 4.32 points at 1,723.49.

* The Thai market lost 0.02 per cent or 0.17 points to close at 801.15 points. Markets were closed for a public holiday in Australia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, New Zealand, the Philippines and Singapore.

Semuanya OK!!!