Composite Index 19/04/2010The KLCI ended lower on Monday as lead by the weakening regional markets. The KLCI loss 6.1 points to close at 1326.67 points. Support for the KLCI is at 1318.53 Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance is at 1334 followed by 1347.6 points.
As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands expanded 26%, with the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band, and therefore, the immediate technical outlook for the KLCI is now bearish. The negative signal shall remain intact, until the Bollinger Bands expansion rate shall reduced or the KLCI breaking above the Bollinger Middle Band.
As indicated by B, total market volume increased 3.7%, but still below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market is relatively quiet as investors choose to shun the market correction. With the volume below the 40-day VMA level, the KLCI is not likely to pick up any strength, thus the correction mode is likely to carry on.As indicated by C, the stochastic rebounded slightly near 10%, but remain below 30%. Therefore, the short term bearish signal remains intact.
In conclusion, with the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band, together with the Bollinger Bands re-expanding, the immediate technical picture of the KLCI is bearish biased.
综合指数 2010年 04月 19日富时综合指数在区域股市的带领下走软，综指按日下滑6.10点，以1326.67点闭市，综指当前的支持水平维持在1318.53点的费氏线，阻力水平则是1334点及1347.6点的费氏线。
如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）打开26%，而综指却仍然处于布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以下，这使到开始转弱的趋势，接下来若布林频带进一步打开，那综指将有持续下跌的风险，直到布林频带打开的幅度减低或综指上扬突破布林中频带为止。
如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量稍微增加3.7%，不过成交量仍然低于了40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平，这显示整体市场仍然趋向淡静疲弱的格局。通常在综指开始转弱时，成交量将会低于40天平均值，这是投资者纷纷在综指转弱的当儿离场观望所致，无论如何，若成交量在综指下滑时过高则是卖出沉重的讯号。
如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）在接近10%时回弹，不过由于随机指标已处于30%以下了，所以综指的短期走势将维持下滑的格局，直到随机指标上扬突破30%为止。总的来说，综指跌破布林中频带再加上布林频带开始打开显示综指有进一步转弱的迹象，换句话说，若综指未能在短期内回弹，那综指将形成一个下跌的趋势，直到布林频带打开的幅度收窄为止。
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