TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >> Composite Index 02/04/2010 / 综合指数 2010年 04月 02日

Composite Index 02/04/2010
The KLCI ended higher on Friday, as lead by the overnight gains of the US Markets, the KLCI closed 6.1 points higher at 1335.93 points. As indicated by A, the KLCI broke above the 1334.34 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement, and now testing the L1 resistance line. Immediate support for the KLCI is at 1334.34 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement followed by the 1308 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands expanded 17%, with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, thus giving a bullish signal. The bullish movement of the KLCI is expected to carry on until the Bollinger Bands should contract, or until the expansion rate should reduce.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 2.5%, with the volume standing above the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that the overall market is still actively participated, and therefore, the positive market sentiment is likely to sustain.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic breaks above 90%, suggesting that the short term movement of the KLCI is indeed bullish. If the Stochastic should touch 100%, it would be a signal suggesting an over-heated short term movement, thus a technical correction could take place. Nevertheless, provided that the Stochastic is still above 70% level, the short term movement of the KLCI is expected to be bullish biased.

In conclusion, with the KLCI breaking above 1334.34, the immediate technical outlook for the KLCI is still positive, and the KLCI is set to test the L1 line. Despite the L1 resistance line, the uptrend of the KLCI shall remain intact, if the KLCI should stay above the 14, 21, 31 EMA.

综合指数 2010年 04月 02日
国际指数在道指的带领下纷纷走高，富时综合指数也不例外，综指按上扬6.10点，以1335.94点结束交易。如图中箭头A所示，综指已经突破1334点的费氏阻力线，综指接下来开始接近L1的上升趋势阻力线，这将是综指的主要阻力线，支持水平则分别是1334点及1308点的费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）打开17%，所以综指进一步的上扬，一般上综指将有望维持目前的涨势，直到布林频带打开的幅度减低或收窄为止。另一方面，只要综指继续的保持在布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以上，综指的后市仍然看涨。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量增加2.5%，这使到成交量成功的守住40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）以上，这显示市场的交投量充足，这对综指维持目前的涨势有利。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）上扬突破90%的水平，这表示综指短期走势处于上扬的格局；接下来若随机指标达到100%将是综指短期走势过热的现象，无论如何，只要随机指标能继续保持在70%以上，那综指的短期的涨势将有望维持下去。

总的来说，综指突破1334点的费氏阻力水平，这显示综指后市看高一线，惟综指接下来将面对L1上升趋势线的阻力，这将是综指强大的阻力，所以综指有技术调整的可能，不过只要综指能继续的在布林中频带及14、21、31天的加权移动平均线（EMA）上获得扶持，那综指的中长期涨势仍然属于上扬的格局。