综合指数 2010年 04月 01日日富时综合指数在亚太股市上扬的带动下走高，综指以1329.84点闭市，按日上扬9.27点，并创下26个月的新高。如图中箭头A所示，综指一度上探1334.34点的费氏阻力线，惟综指精确的在此阻力水平遇阻。综指当前的支持水平仍然是1308点的费氏线，阻力水平则是1334点的费氏线及L1的上升趋势阻力线。
如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）打开17%，而综指始终处于布林中频带以上，所以综指进一步上扬。一般上综指将有望维持目前的涨势，直到布林频带打开幅度减低或收窄为止。
如图中箭头B所示，虽然综指上扬，不过马股成交量却进一步下滑16%，所幸的是成交量仍然能够达到40天成交量移动平均线（VMA），这显示虽然投资者目前对综指后市并未完全的乐观，不过仍然有不少的投资者开始部署，所以成交量能维持在40天平均值的健康水平。如图中C圈所示，胜图强弱指标在50%的水平徘徊后，开始向上翘，这显示综指的中期走势终于有开始转强的迹象，接下来若胜图强弱指标持续上扬并突破70%的水平，那综指的中期走势将有望继续上扬。
总的来说，综指自上扬突破布林中频带及1308点的费氏线后，连续上扬了7个交易日，由于布林频带打开，所以综指将有望继续转强，直到综指跌布林中频带为止。无论如何，综指接下来将面对1334点及L1的阻力，所以马股必须获得更多的成交量支持，那综指的后市才有望更上一层楼。
Composite Index 01/04/2010The KLCI ended higher on Thursday, as lead by the positive performance of the Asian markets, the KLCI closed at 1329.84 points, upped 9.27 points, and marked a 26 months new high. As indicated by A, the KLCI tested the 1334.34 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement resistance but failed to break above this level. Therefore, the L1 uptrend resistance line and the 1334.34 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement is still the resistance for the KLCI while the support is at 1308 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.
As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands expanded 17%, with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, therefore, the Bollinger Bands suggests a bullish signal for the KLCI, until the Bollinger Bands expansion rate should reduce or the Bollinger Bands is contracting.
As indicated by B, total market volume fell 16%, despite the KLCI breaking new high. Fortunately, volume managed to stay above the 40-day VMA level, suggesting that the market is still relatively active and technically, if volume should stay above the 40-day VMA level, we assume that the market sentiment as a whole is still positive.
As circled at C, the RSI stays around 50% level while moving slightly higher. This suggests that the mid term strength of the KLCI is slightly on the positive side but technically, the RSI has to break above 70% level in order to signal a mid term bullish signal.
In conclusion, the immediate technical outlook for the KLCI remains positive as the Bollinger Bands is expanding. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Middle Band shall continue serving as the dynamic support, an the KLCI is set to test the 1334 and L1 resistance line, but volume has to pick up in order to sustain the rally.
As indicated by B, total market volume fell 16%, despite the KLCI breaking new high. Fortunately, volume managed to stay above the 40-day VMA level, suggesting that the market is still relatively active and technically, if volume should stay above the 40-day VMA level, we assume that the market sentiment as a whole is still positive.As circled at C, the RSI stays around 50% level while moving slightly higher. This suggests that the mid term strength of the KLCI is slightly on the positive side but technically, the RSI has to break above 70% level in order to signal a mid term bullish signal.
In conclusion, the immediate technical outlook for the KLCI remains positive as the Bollinger Bands is expanding. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Middle Band shall continue serving as the dynamic support, an the KLCI is set to test the 1334 and L1 resistance line, but volume has to pick up in order to sustain the rally.
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