SPX Settles Atop 160-Month Trendline, Despite Day's Downbeat Data

Late Hiccup Caps Bullish First Quarter
A double dose of downbeat economic data weighed on stocks today, as reports on business activity and unemployment gave the bulls a one-two punch. First, the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago's business barometer fell to 58.8% in March, marking a steeper-than-anticipated slide from February's reading of 62.6%, and pointing to milder-than-forecast manufacturing activity in the Midwest. Elsewhere, the ADP's employment report indicated that private-sector firms issued 23,000 pink slips last month – a surprise to economists, who predicted a gain of 40,000 jobs. With the Labor Department's highly anticipated nonfarm payrolls report slated to hit the Street on Friday, today's dismal data left an ominous taste in the mouths of bulls, prompting the major indexes to settle south of breakeven.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 10,856.63) accelerated its retreat into the close, finishing with a deficit of 50.1 points, or 0.5%. Only six of the Dow's 30 components bucked the trend, with Chevron pacing the advancers, while Cisco Systems and Microsoft Corp. led the 24 declining equities. However, despite today's journey into the red, the blue-chip barometer finished March 5% higher, adding 4.1% in the first quarter of 2010.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,169.43) surrendered 3.8 points, or 0.3%, though the broad-market index scored a longer-term psychological victory. More specifically, the SPX ended north of its 160-month moving average for the first time since September 2008, adding 5.8% in March and gaining 4.9% for the quarter.
Finally, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,397.96) gave up 12.7 points, or 0.5%, today. Nevertheless, the tech-rich index muscled an impressive 7% higher for the month, tacking on 5.7% in the first quarter.

Crude oil futures finished at a new 2010 high, thanks to a softer greenback
Crude futures settled at their highest price of 2010 today, despite an increase in domestic oil and gasoline stockpiles. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) said crude inventories rose by 2.9 million barrels last week, exceeding economists' expectations for a 2.4-million-barrel surplus. In addition, the EIA reported that gasoline stockpiles unexpectedly increased by 300,000 barrels, defying economists' predictions for a 1.5-million-barrel decline.

Nevertheless, black gold triumphed thanks to a weaker dollar, which lost ground against its European counterpart. By the close, May-dated crude oil added $1.39, or 1.7%, to finish at $83.76 per barrel. From a longer-term perspective, the front-month contract advanced 5.1% in March and 5.5% in the first quarter, marking its fifth consecutive quarterly increase.