TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >> 综合指数 2010年 04月 27日 / Composite Index 27/04/2010

综合指数 2010年 04月 27日
如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数以1339.72点闭市，按日微跌0.35点，所以综指整体上仍然处于盘整格局中，综指接下来的支持水平维持在1334点及1318.53点的费氏线，阻力水平则仍然是1347.61及1354点的费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）维持零打开的幅度，这表示综指当前的走势仍然是维持在横摆巩固中，直到布林频带明显的打开为止。接下来若布林频带打开时，综指能继续维持在布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以上，那综指将有望形成一个上扬的格局，反之亦然。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量扬升21.9%，这使到成交量达到了40天成交量移动平均线（VMA），这意味着市场的交投开始活跃，这对综指出现转强的趋势是有利的，无论如何，成交量增加的原因之一是由于特定股项成交量高扯，所以成交量必须接下来维持在40天平均值以上，这才有利于综指进一步转强。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）在90%的水平回软，这表示综指的短期稍微遇阻。无论如何，由于随机指标目前显示的是综指在横摆巩固格局中的短期走势，所以将会显得过敏，不过一般上只要随机指标不跌破70%，那综指短期走势仍然有望继续的转强。

总的来说，由于布林频带维持在一个窄小的格局，这是综指正在酝酿着新趋势的讯号，综指目前只待布林频带开始打开，那将能确定综指的新趋势；以技术而言，综指新的趋势将取决于综指在布林频带打开时所处于的相应位置。

Composite Index 27/04/2010
As indicated by A, the KLCI fell 0.35 points to close at 1339.72 points, while still consolidating in a narrow range. Support for the KLCI remains at 1334 and 1318.53 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance are seen at 1347.61 followed by 1354 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands is still unchanged, suggesting that the KLCI is still in a consolidating phase, until the re-expansion of the Bollinger Bands.

If the Bollinger Bands should expand with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, it would be a bullish signal, otherwise, a bearish signal.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 21.9% and breaking above the 40-day VMA level. However, part of the increased volume was from some selective counters with heavy selling such as KNM, and therefore, this could not full reflect the overall improvement of the market sentiment.

As circled at C, the Stochastic retreated slightly at 90%, but generally, with the Stochastic above 70% level, the KLCI short term movement is still in the bullish territory. If the Stochastic should break below 70% level, it would be a signal suggesting a beginning of a technical correction.

In conclusion, the Bollinger Bands is still contracting at the tight band width, suggesting that the KLCI is still preparing for a new movement, and the beginning of the new movement is about to take place. We shall monitor the re-expansion of the Bollinger Bands, and the relative position of the KLCI at the Bollinger Middle Band to determine the new direction.