Technical Analysis Composite Index 02/03/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 03月 02日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 02/03/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI broke below the L1 line of the Symmetrical Triangle, ended the day lower with a daily low touching the 869 Fibonacci Retracement before closing at 876.56 points, down 14.11 points. Therefore, the 869 Fibonacci Retracement is now the support for the KLCI, while the resistance is at the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic resistance and the 885 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded 12% with the KLCI remained below the Bollinger Middle Band, and therefore, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still bearish biased. The bearish biased view of the KLCI is expected to continue until the Bollinger Bands Width contracts again.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 6% on Monday, with volume above the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market is now actively participated. However, the increased of volume has resulted the drop of the KLCI, thus suggested some increased of selling pressure. If the KLCI should continue to drop with higher volume, the selling is expected to be stronger.

As circled at C, the Stochastic remained below 30% level, which is the short term bearish region. Provided that the Stochastic is still below 30% level, the short term market movement for the KLCI expected to be bearish biased.

After consolidated in the Symmetrical Triangle for nearly two months, the KLCI finally broke out below the Symmetrical Triangle and ended its consolidation. For now, readers can also monitor the Bollinger Bands signal for the next move. Unless the KLCI could break above the Bollinger Middle Band in the near future, the short term bearish outlook for the KLCI is still intact.

综合指数 2009年 03月 02日

如图中箭头A所示，综合指数周一跌破了对称三角型的L1线，这就是一直来提到综指酝酿已久的新趋势，可惜的是由于综指是向下跌破三角形，所以综指形成了跌势。如图所示，综指开市后便立即下跌，惟综指在869点的胜图自动费氏线精确的获得扶持，综指随后出现技术反弹，使到全日跌幅减少至14.11点或1.6%。综指目前的支持水平是869点的胜图自动费氏线，阻力水平则是布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）的动态阻力水平及885点的胜图自动费氏线。

如图所示，由于布林频带（Bollinger Bands）打开了12%，而综指继续的处于布林中频带之下，所以综指形成了下跌的趋势，直到布林频带再次收窄为止。

如图中箭头B指示，虽然综指下跌，不过马股的总成交量反而增加了6%，继续的处于40天的成交量平均值以上。这表示了目前市场相对活跃，但是却出现在综指形成跌势时，这显示市场卖压相当大，不过也有投资者趁低吸购。无论如何，若综指继续下跌而成交量还是保持在高于40天的平均值的话，那就表示综指的跌势进一步加剧了。

图中C圈指示，随机指标（Stochastic）依然处于30%以下的水平，这表示了综指短期的走势继续的属于弱势中，通常若随机指标维持在30%水平之下的话，综指短期将继续有下跌的风险。

综指在三角形内巩固长达两个月后，综指终于摆脱了这巩固的格局。接下来布林频带将成为主要的技术分析指标，因为除非综指能在近期内上扬突破布林中频带，否则综指后市将继续的看低一线。