TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Composite Index 26/03/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 03月 26日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 26/03/2009

As indicated by A, the KLCI breaks above the L2 trend line, and resisted by the 885 Fibonacci Retracement, closing 6.66 points higher to 885.47 points. Therefore, the immediate resistance for the KLCI is still 885 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the supports are still at 869 Fibonacci Retracement and the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic support.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded another 15%, suggesting the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still on the positive side. Nevertheless, the Bollinger Middle Band is an important support for the KLCI to sustain this positive movement.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 56.7%, and further above the 40-day VMA level. This shows that current market is actively participated, thus a sign of improvement of market confidence. Therefore, as long as the volume is still higher above the 40-day VMA level, it would a great help in lifting the market sentiment.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is still above 70% level, which is a short term bullish region. This shows that the short term market movement is still bullish. In other words, there are more upside room for the KLCI short term movement until the Stochastic should break below 70%.

There are three criteria in order to sustain the KLCI rally, which are, firstly, the expansion of the Bollinger Bands Width. Secondly, the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, and finally volume above 40-day VMA level. As long as the above conditions are sustainable, the KLCI is likely to test the next major psychological resistance, which is the 900 mark.

综合指数 2009年 03月 26日
如图中箭头A所示，综合指数上扬突破L2的趋势线，综指随后精确的在885点的胜图自动费氏线遇上阻力，全日上扬6.66点，以885.47点挂收。综指目前的阻力水平依然是885点的胜图自动费氏线，支持水平则是869点的胜图自动费氏线及布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）的动态阻力水平。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Ban）再次打开15%，这表示综指目前继续处于转强的格局中，无论如何，综指未能突破885点的阻力水平，所以综指能否更上一层楼有待进一步的确认。一般上，只要综指继续的维持在布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以上，综指将有望继续走强。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量增加56.7%，明显的高于40天的成交量平均线（VMA）。这表示市场的交投热炽，这表示市场有足够的承接力来吸纳套利卖压，有助于维持大势转强。换句话说，这是投资者对市场恢复信心的象征，所以只要成交量能够保持在高于40天成交量平均值的话，综指后市有望看高一线。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）依然保持在70%以上，表示综指短期还是处于强势中。通常若随机指标继续处于70%水平以上的话，综指短期是有上扬的空间，直到随机指标跌破70%水平为止。

从技术分析角度来看，综指上扬的条件是布林频带继续打开、综指保持在布林中频带以上及成交量高于40天的平均值。目前市场都已具备以上三个重要条件，所以只要以上的条件能够维持下去的话，综指有望上探900点的重要心理阻力甚至更高的水平。

HAPPY TRADING & GOODLUCK2ALL