TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 综合指数 2009年 03月 25日 / Composite Index 25/03/2009

综合指数 2009年 03月 25日

如图中箭头A所示，综合指数周三在L2的趋势线徘徊，全日窄幅中交易。综指目前的阻力水平依然是885点的胜图自动费氏线，支持水平则是869点胜图自动费氏线及布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）的动态支持水平。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）进一步打开15%，而综指依然处于布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以上，这表示综指目前还是属于强势中。综指因为短期涨幅过大，引发了布林中频带的拉回效应（Pullback Eff），一般上综指会进行调整或横摆巩固，综指接下来若能继续在布林中频带上扬获得扶持的话，那综指将有望恢复上扬的趋势。

虽然马股总成交量周三减退了46%，但如图中箭头B所示，成交量依然达到40天的成交量平均线（VMA），这表示市场目前仍然有足够的承接力，接下来成交量若能够保持在40天的成交量平均值以上的话，那将有利于综指维持上扬的格局。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）并未跌破70%的水平，这表示了综指短期还是属于强势中。换句话说，只要随机指标能保持在70%水平以上的话，综指短期的走势有望看高一线。

总的来说，综指目前有调整巩固的迹象，这是因为综指没有明确突破L2的下降趋势线，所以综指上扬的讯号还是有待确认。无论如何，只要综指继续的在布林中频带获得扶持，加上成交量保持在40天的平均值以上的话，综指巩固后还是有望转强。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 25/03/2009

As indicated by A, the KLCI is testing the L2 downtrend line with a narrow daily range, closing 0.80 points higher to 878.81 points. Supports for the KLCI are still at 869 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement and the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic support while the resistance is still at 885 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded 15%, with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band. Therefore, this shows that the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still positive biased. Nevertheless, the KLCI is having its pullback effect after being over-heated, and generally, the KLCI is likely to move sideways before attempt to resume its upside movement.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 46%, but volume is still above the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that the overall market participation is still sufficient. If the KLCI should resume its rally, volume above the 40-day VMA level is imperative.

As circled at C, the Stochastic does not break below 70% level, and therefore, the short term bullish signal remains intact. In other words, as long as the Stochastic is still above 70%, the short term movement for the KLCI is likely to be bullish biased.

In conclusion, a sideways movement for the KLCI is expected for the moment, as the KLCI has not broken above the L2 line successfully. Nevertheless, as long as the KLCI is still supported by the Bollinger Middle Band with volume above the 40-day VMA level, the bullish biased movement is likely to resume after its sideways consolidation.

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