TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 17/03/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 03月 17日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 17/03/2009

As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted another 18%, while the KLCI continue its sideways movement, closing 0.99 points higher. Support for the KLCI remains at 833 Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance are still at Bollinger Middle Band dynamic resistance and the 853 Fibonacci Retracement.

The contraction of the Bollinger Bands Width also imply that the KLCI is now preparing for a new movement, and therefore, as long as the Bollinger Bands Width is still contracting, the sideways movement of the KLCI is expected to continue.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 22.2%, and the volume is getting closer to the 40-day VMA level. If volume should increase and break above the 40-day VMA level, it would be a positive signal for the KLCI, especially when the KLCI is testing the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic resistance.

As circled at C, the MACD histogram rounding bottom signal remains in place, suggesting the short term movement of the KLCI is still improving. However, with the MACD line still below the zero level, this shows that the the longer term movement of the KLCI is still on the weaker side.

In conclusion, a sideways movement would be the best scenario for the KLCI at this moment; this way, the market selling pressure is likely to reduce and a consolidation is likely to help investors to regain some confident. Therefore, after every consolidation, the KLCI would have another chance to pick some strength.

综合指数 2009年 03月 17日

如图中箭头A所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）继续的收窄，这表示综合指数已经进入巩固的格局。综指目前的支持水平依然是833点的胜图自动费氏线，阻力水平则继续的是布林中频带的动态阻力水平及853点的胜图自动费氏线。

通常当布林频带收窄是表示综指正在酝酿着一个新的走势，换句话说，若布林频带继续收窄的话，那综指将持续的横摆巩固，直到布林频带重新打开为止。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量增加了22.2%，使到成交量再度的接近40天的成交量平均值，这显示市场交投有增加的迹象。若成交量能够继续增加并且突破40天成交量平均值的话，那将有助于综指上探布林中频带的动态阻力水平。

如图中C圈显示，平均乖离的振荡指标（MACD Histogram）再度上升，这显示振荡指标正在形成一个圆底（Rounding Bottom）的讯号，这表示综指短期有转强的迹象。无论如何，由于平均乖离还是处于零轴以下，所以综指的中长期的走势还是处于弱势中。

总的来说，布林频带的收窄使到综指出现横摆巩固的调整，从技术分析的角度来看这是对综指有利的，因为当综指横摆时通常可以减少市场卖压。

与此同时横摆也意味着综指有望在酝酿新走势的当儿，给予足够时间使到投资者重拾信心，使到综指有转强的希望。无论如何，接下来若综指上探布林中频带时，成交量能达到40天的平均值的话，那综指才有望成功的突破此主要动态阻力线。