TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 综合指数 2009年 03月 16日 / Composite Index 16/03/2009

综合指数 2009年 03月 16日

如图中箭头A所示，布林频带进一步收窄8%，这表示综合指数的跌幅开始缓和下来，综指按日微跌2.57点。通常布林频带收窄也表示综指正进入巩固的格局，所以综指止跌巩固或有出现技术反弹的迹象。若综指出现技术回弹的话，布林中频带将是综指的第一个反弹目标。

综指的支持水平依然是833点的胜图自动费氏线，阻力水平则是853点的胜图自动费氏线及布林中频带的动态阻力水平。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量减退了9.5%，所以成交量还是处于40天的成交量移动平均线（VMA）以下，这表示目前市场的交投淡静。一般来说，当综指进入巩固或横摆格局时，成交量偏低是很正常的。无论如何，若综指要突破布林中频带的话，成交量是必须增加并超越40天的成交量平均值来确认综指的涨势，届时综指才有望摆脱目前的跌势。

如图中C圈显示，平均乖离的震荡指标连续两天上升，形成了圆底（Rounding Bot），这是综指短期有望技术反弹的迹象。换句话说，只要平均乖离的震荡指标继续够上扬的话，那综指的短期走势将能继续的转强。

总的来说，布林频带开始收窄，这显示综指有望进行调整巩固，甚至酝酿着新的趋势。无论如何，综指的新趋势必须要等到布林频带收窄后重新打开，届时再以综指处于布林中频带的位置来确定综指的新趋势。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 16/03/2009
As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands Width continue its contraction, and therefore, the KLCI's volatility is also reduced, closing the day 2.57 points lower. The contraction of the Bollinger Bands Width suggests that the KLCI is likely to consolidate from now, and the Bollinger Middle Band is still the first target of the KLCI.

Support for the KLCI is still at 833 Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance are at the 853 Fibonacci Retracement as well as the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic resistance.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 9.5% on Monday, with volume further below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market participation is indeed low. Nevertheless, if the KLCI should consolidate, the lower volume is considered normal. However, if the KLCI should attempt to break the Bollinger Middle Band, volume has to increase and stay above the 40-day VMA level in order to confirm the rally.

As circled at C, the MACD histogram continue to rise, forming a rounding bottom. This suggests a technical rebound signal for the KLCI, or even a chance for the KLCI to regain some strength. As long as the histogram is still rising, the KLCI is likely to improve until the histogram should form another rounding top.

In conclusion, the contraction of the Bollinger Bands Width also suggests that the KLCI is preparing for a new movement, and the new direction shall only be revealed once the Bollinger Bands Width re-expands.

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