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Saturday, March 21, 2009

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 综合指数 2009年 03月 20日 / Composite Index 20/03/2009

综合指数 2009年 03月 20日
如图中箭头A所示,布林频带(Bollinger Bands)再度的收窄10%,这表示综合指数目前依然处于巩固的格局。无论如何,综指周五上扬突破853点的胜图自动费氏线,所以综指下一个阻力水平将是869点的胜图自动费氏线,支持水平则是853点胜图自动费氏线及布林中频带的动态支持水平。

由于综指已经突破布林中频带及853点的胜图自动费氏线,所以接下来只要布林频带重新打开的话,那综指将有望转强。换句话说,布林中频带目前成为综指一道重要的支持线,因为只要综指能成功维持在布林中频带以上的话,综指转强的几率将提高。
如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量稍微的增加2.6%,但却未能突破40天的成交量平均线(Volume Moving Average),这表示市场目前的交投及承接力不足。若综指要完全转强的话,成交量高于40天的平均值是先决条件。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)稍微上扬突破70%的水平,这表示综指短期有转强的迹象。一般来说,若随机指标上扬突破70%的水平,并且能保持在70%水平以上的话,那综指短期将有望看高一线。

总的来说,综指继续技术反弹的趋势,并且突破了布林中频带的动态阻力,这是技术指标发出短期转强的讯号,综指接下来能否转强缺乏的就是布林频带打开的讯号及成交量高于40天平均值的确认。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 20/03/09
As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted 10%, suggesting the KLCI is still consolidating, despite the KLCI breaking above the 853 Fibonacci Retracement resistance. Next resistance for the KLCI is at 869 Fibonacci Retracement while the supports are found at 853 Fibonacci Retracement followed by the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic support.

With the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate short term outlook for the KLCI is turning positive. Therefore, if the Bollinger Bands Width should expands with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, it would be a bullish signal for the KLCI.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 2.6%, but still below the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that the overall market participation is still low. In short, volume above the 40-day VMA level is a must if the KLCI should attempt to rally.
As circled at C, the Stochastic is breaking above the 70% level marginally. Generally, if the Stochastic should break above, and maintain above 70% level, it would be a signal suggesting a short term bullish signal for the KLCI.

Since the KLCI has broken above the Bollinger Middle Band, indicators signals are suggesting the KLCI short term movement is improving. Basically, the we need to see the expansion of the Bollinger Bands Width with volume above the 40-day VMA level to confirm such bullish signal.

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