TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Composite Index 30/03/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 03月 30日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 30/03/2009

On Monday, the KLCI declined 16.09 points, to close at 869.34 points. As indicated by A, the KLCI rebounded precisely at the Bollinger Middle Band, before closing at 869.34 points, this suggests that the Bollinger Middle Band is still the dynamic support for the KLCI.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted 5%, suggesting the KLCI is now having its technical correction. Since the 869 Fibonacci Retracement is very closed to the Bollinger Middle Band, it will be a support for the KLCI for now, while the resistance is at 885 Fibonacci Retracement.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 20.1%, despite the KLCI falling over 16 points. This shows that the market is no sign of panic selling, only an abrupt technical correction.

Nevertheless, from the technical point of view, a lower volume during a technical correction or a consolidation of the KLCI is considered normal, as investors choose to stay on the sidelines amid the market uncertainty.

As circled at C, the Stochastic breaks below 70%, suggesting a beginning of a technical correction. If the Stochastic should also break below 30% level, it would be a signal suggesting a weakening short term movement for the KLCI.

Despite the sharp correction of the KLCI on Monday, the contraction of the Bollinger Bands Width is also suggesting that the KLCI is now gearing up for a new movement. If the Bollinger Bands Width should continue to contract, the correction of the KLCI is expected to continue.

综合指数 2009年 03月 30日

如图中箭头A所示，由于全亚太股市暴跌，综合指数也不能独善其身，闭市时下跌16.09点或1.8%，惟综指精确的在布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）上获得扶持。如图所示，综指随后稍微反弹以869.34点挂收，所以布林中频带成为综指重要的动态支持水平。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）开始收窄（-5%），这表示综指已进入调整的格局。综指目前的支持水平落在869点的胜图自动费氏线，加上布林频带与869 点的胜图自动费氏线几乎重叠，所以支持水平倍增，阻力水平则是885点的胜图自动费氏线。

如图中箭头B所示，虽然综指周一下挫1.8%，但马股的总成交量成交量却没有增加，反而减退20.1%，这表示马股周一还没有出现惊慌抛售的状况，只能算是幅度较大的技术调整。无论如何，从技术分析的角度来说，当综指进入巩固格局时若成交量减退的话，一般来说是很正常的，这是因为大部分的投资者在大势还没有明确趋势时静观其变，等待市场进一步的指引所致。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）跌破了70%的水平，这是综指短期技术调整的讯号。若随机指标继续下跌并跌破30%水平的话，那将是综指短期跌势进一步开始恶化的讯号。

总的来说，布林频带开始收窄，所以综指开始的调整的格局，无论如何若布林频带收窄后综指跌幅不大的话，那表示综指会酝酿一个新的走势。通常若布林频带继续收窄的话，那综指将会出现横摆巩固的格局，直到布林频带重新打开为止。