As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands Width started to contract for the first time since the KLCI broke below the Symmetrical Triangle. This suggests that the KLCI is likely to consolidate or even technically rebound. Nevertheless, if the KLCI should rebound, the first target would usually be the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic resistance.In addition, the KLCI formed a Harami Cross candlestick on Friday, which is a 'wait and see' signal, suggesting a possible rebound for the KLCI. Support for the KLCI is still at 833 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance are at the Bollinger Middle Band followed by the 853 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.
As indicated by B, total market volume declined 14.5%, with volume still below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the overall market is still quiet, as investors are still on the sidelines as the market sentiment is still weak.
As circled at C, the MACD histogram ticked higher on Friday, and might be forming a rounding bottom. If the MACD histogram should form a rounding bottom, it would be a signal suggesting a technical rebound for the KLCI.In conclusion, a consolidation or a technical rebound is crucial for the KLCI at the moment. However, if the KLCI should remained resisted by the Bollinger Middle Band after its possible rebound, the outlook shall remained bearish biased.
综合指数 2009年 03月 13日
如图中箭头A显示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）自综合指数跌破对称三角形以来第一次收窄（-4%），这表示综指有望开始止跌，随后进入巩固或反弹的格局。一般来说，若出现技术反弹，综指的第一个目标将会是布林中频带的动态阻力线。
另一方面，综指周五形成一个『孕妇十字』（Harami Cross）的阴阳烛，这表示综指有反弹的迹象，但是这阴阳烛讯号必须获得综指接下来走高才能确认综指是否能止跌回弹。综指目前的支持水平继续的落在833点的胜图自动费氏线，阻力水平则是布林中频带的动态阻力水平及853的胜图自动费氏线。
如图中箭头B显示，虽然综指周五回扬，但马股的总成交量却减少了14.5%，这使到成交量还是未能达到40天的成交量移动平均 水平（VMA）。换句话说，市场目前的交投还是属于淡静的，不过若综指接下来要转强的话，成交量就得增加至40天平均值或以上。
如图中C圈显示，平均乖离的震荡指标（MACD Histogram）在周五稍微上升，有形成圆底（Rounding Bot）的迹象。若平均乖离振荡指标接下来继续上扬并形成圆底的话，那振荡指标将发出技术反弹的讯号。
总的来说，由于布林频带开始收窄，所以综指有望进入巩固或技术反弹的迹象。无论如何，若综指一日未能上扬突破布林中频带的话，那综指的上扬趋势只能算是纯技术反弹而
已。
已。
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