TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 综合指数 2009年 03月 24日 / Composite Index 24/03/2009

综合指数 2009年 03月 24日

美国道琼指数隔夜暴涨将近500点使到综合指数周二调高开市，随后在套利活动下使到综指回软，惟综指精确的在L2趋势线上获得扶持，全日微跌0.38点。虽然综指一度突破885点，不过综指最终未能在站稳在885点胜图自动费氏阻力线，所以885点的水平依然是综指目前的阻力水平，支持水平则是869点的胜图自动费氏线及布林中频带的动态支持水平。

如图中A圈所示，综指上扬突破了布林上频带（Bollinger Upper Band），发出超买的讯号，这表示综指早盘在跳空后出现过热的现象，所以出现拉回效应（Pull Back Effect），这是技术调整的一种。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量增加1.8%，继续保持在40天的成交量平均线（VMA）以上，这表示市场目前的交投还是相当活跃，一般上只要成交量能够维持在40天的平均值以上的话，那综指在调整后还是有望保持在转强的格局中。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标跌破了90%的水平，这是综指短期发出过热的讯号，这表示综指有技术调整的风险。接下来若随机指标跌破70%水平的话，那综指短期涨势将宣告结束，并开始有转弱的风险。换句话说，随机指标必须保持在70%水平以上，那综指短期才有望更上一层楼。

综指迅速上扬使到短期走势过热，在技术分析上有拉回效应的迹象，一般来说，布林中频带将是综指出现技术调整的第一个目标，若综指调整后能在布林中频带获得扶持的话，那综指的后市还是有望看高一线。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 24/03/2009
Due to the overnight rally of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the KLCI opened higher on Tuesday, but ended lower with a lost of 0.38 points. Since the KLCI failed to break above 885 Fibonacci Retracement, the 885 level is still the resistance for the KLCI while the supports are at 869 Fibonacci Retracement and the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic support.

As circled at A, the KLCI is now above the Bollinger Upper Band, which signaled an over-heated condition. Therefore, the KLCI is likely to have a pull-back effect as a form of technical correction.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 1.8%, while still above 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market is still active. However, the increased volume on Tuesday with the KLCI ended lower suggested some selling pressure for investors are taking profit. Nevertheless, if the volume should remain above the 40-day VMA level after its technical correction, there is a good chance for the KLCI to resume its short term rally.

As circled at C, the Stochastic breaks below 90% level, suggesting a risk of a technical correction, as the KLCI was over-heated. If the Stochastic should should break below 70% level, it would have ended the short term bullish signal. In other words, the Stochastic has to maintain above 70% level to sustain its short term bullish signal.

With the pullback effect due to take place, the first target of the technical correction is at the Bollinger Middle Band. If the KLCI should be supported by the Bollinger Middle Band after its technical correction, the positive movement of the KLCI is likely to resume.

HAPPY TRADING!!!