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Thursday, March 26, 2009

CPO Futures Outlook 26 Mar 2009

Crude palm oil futures prices on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives closed lower yesterday amid weaker soya oil futures prices. The losses were further dampened by unfavorable export data for the first 25 days of March. Cargo surveyor, ITS estimated that exports of Malaysian palm oil products for the first 25 days of March fell 9.2 per cent to 908,404 tons from one million tons shipped during the February 1~25 period. It was a dull market, extending its downward trend from Tuesday which overall turnover fell slightly to 11,164 lots compared with 12,465 lots on Tuesday while open interests declined to 91,579 contracts from 92,694 contracts previously.

At close, the CPO futures for both April 2009 and May 2009 contracts slipped RM10 each to settle at RM2,062 and RM2,002 respectively. The contract month for June 2009 declined RM8 to RM1,972 and July 2009 was down by RM2 to RM1,948. Meanwhile on the physical market, April South was traded at RM2,110, down from RM2,120 per tons recorded on Tuesday.

Other News
Indonesia will maintain a zero percent tax on crude palm oil and its derivative products in April as global prices remain low, the trade ministry said Wednesday. The government,which reviews the tax monthly, has determined that global palm prices are below US$700 a metric ton, the threshold that would trigger an export tax, said Diah Maulida, directorgeneral of foreign trade at the ministry.

World’s largest soya bean producer, Argentina, expect that this year’s harvest may be lower than previously predicted due to severe drought season. As a result, soya bean dropped 16cents to $9.51 per bushel yesterday at CBOT. Market OutlookMarket might continue its downward momentum amid weaker CPO export prospect for this month but it is likely to swing on range between 2,050~1,962 judging on upper and average bound of Bollinger band. In addition, the benchmark June is expecting to gap down due to long covering from previous position. Bearish crossover can be seen on MACD for benchmark June while RSI still hovering at neutral zone. Nonetheless, downward movement might be limited judging from technical trend line

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