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Wednesday, March 18, 2009

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 18/03/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 03月 18日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 18/03/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI tested the Bollinger Middle Band, but remained resisted by the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic resistance. In addition, the Bollinger Middle Band level on Wednesday is also very closed to the 853 Fibonacci Retracement. Nevertheless, support for the KLCI is still at 833 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted another 14%, suggesting the KLCI is still in its consolidation, while also preparing for a new movement.

As indicated by B, total market volume on Wednesday increased 3%, with volume getting closer to the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market participation is improving, but still relatively insufficient. If volume should continue to increase and breaks above the 40-day VMA level, it would help the KLCI in testing the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic resistance again.

As circled at C, the MACD histogram is still rising, and therefore, the rounding bottom remains in sight, this shows that the KLCI short term movement is improving. However, with the MACD line still below the zero level, the KLCI mid to long term movement is still on the weaker side.

In short, the KLCI rally is only considered to be a technical rebound, for it is still resisted by the Bollinger Middle Band. Basically, the Bollinger Bands Width has to expand with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, together with volume above the 40-day VMA level to confirm the bullish signal.
综合指数 2009年 03月 18日
如图中箭头A所示,综合指数一度上扬,惟精确的在布林中频带遇阻,综指随后稍微回软,按日微升6.09点或0.7%。由于布林中频带的水平与853点的胜图自动费氏线重叠,所以阻力倍增,综指的支持水平则依然落在833点的胜图自动费氏线。

如图所示,布林频带再度的收窄14%,这表示综指继续的巩固,换句话说,综指目前正在酝酿着一个新的走势。接下来当布林频带再度明显的打开时,若综指能突破布林中频带的话,届时综指将有望止跌回扬。

如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量增加3%,所以成交量越来越接近40天的成交量移动平均线(VMA)。这表示市场的交投有稍微改善的迹象,若成交量能够继续上扬并突破40天平均值的话,那将有助于综指突破布林中频带的动态阻力水平.

如图中C圈所示,平均乖离的振荡指标(MACD Histogram)显示圆底的讯号,这表示综指短期继续有转强的迹象。无论如何,由于平均乖离到目前为止依然处于零轴以下,这表示了综指中长期的走势还是属于弱势。
严格来说,综指周三的反弹只可以算是纯技术性反弹,并非综指转强的讯号,这是因为综指未能突破布林中频带的动态阻力水平。换句话说,综指必须先上扬突破布林中频带,再配合布林频带明显的打开及成交量处于40天的平均值以上,那才能确认综指出现转强的讯号。

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