TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 综合指数 2009年 03月 31日 / Composite Index 31/03/2009

综合指数 2009年 03月 31日

如图所示，综合指数在布林中频带（Bollinger MidBand）及869点的胜图自动费氏线获得扶持，全日回弹3.21点或0.4%。这表示综指目前的支持水平依然是869点的胜图自动费氏线及布林中频带的动态支持水平，阻力水平则是885点的胜图自动费氏线。

如图中箭头A所示，综指一度上探图中的下降趋势线，惟综指精确的在下降趋势线遇阻，这是综指当前的动态阻力线，换句话说，综指必须突破此趋势线，综指才有望摆脱自1月7日来的跌势。

如图所示，布林频带进一步收窄10%，这是综指波动开始减低的讯号。一般来说，只要布林频带继续收窄的话，综指将会倾向于出现调整或横摆巩固的格局，直到布林频带重新打开为止。

如图中箭头B所示，马股周二的总成交量增加了5.2%，这使到成交量继续保持在40天的成交量移动平均线（VMA）以上，这表示目前市场的交投仍然属于活跃。换句话说，市场还是有足够的承接力来吸纳卖压，使综指继续获得良好的扶持，是综指止跌转强的重要条件之一。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）周二没有再下跌，这是综指虽然处于技术调整中，不过却还不至于发出短期跌势的讯号，所以若随机指标能在短期内回升并突破70%水平的话，那么综指短期将有望出现短期转强的格局。

虽然国际市场继续动荡，不过综指在布林中频带及869点胜图自动费氏线获得扶持，再加上布林频带收窄，这使到综指有望进入横摆巩固的格局。从技术分析的角度来看，综指目前最好的调整就是横摆巩固。若综指能够在860点水平以上横摆巩固的话，那将有望形成“较高的底”（Higher Low），这将是综指摆脱跌势转强的一个重要转势图形（Reversal Pattern）

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 31/03/2009

As indicated by A, the KLCI rebounded 3.21 points on Tuesday after being supported by the Bollinger Middle Band as well as the 869 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement. This shows that the support for the KLCI is still at 869 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement followed by the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic support, while the resistance is at 885 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted another 10%, suggesting that the KLCI is still consolidating. Generally, the volatility of the KLCI is lower during a contraction of the Bollinger Bands Width.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 5.2% on Tuesday, with volume still above the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that the market participation is still relatively sufficient. This is an important element if the KLCI should attempt to rally again.

As circled at C, the Stochastic does not decline further after breaking below 70%, this shows that the Stochastic is suggesting a beginning of a technical correction signal, but not a short term bearish signal. Nevertheless, if the Stochastic should return to above 70% level in the near term, the KLCI is expected to resume its short term bullish biased movement.

The contraction of the Bollinger Bands Width suggests that the KLCI is now consolidating while preparing for a new movement. From the Technical Analysis stand point, the best consolidation would be a sideways low volatility movement. If the KLCI should move sideways above 860 level, it is likely to form a higher-low, which is an important bullish reversal signal for the KLCI.

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