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Sunday, March 29, 2009

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 综合指数 2009年 03月 27日 / Composite Index 27/03/2009

综合指数 2009年 03月 27日
如图中箭头A所示,综合指数的布林频带(Bollinger Ban)的打开幅度从15%降低至2%,这表示了综指有出现调整或巩固的迹象。若布林频带接下来收窄的话,综指将出现技术调整,而调整的第一个目标将是布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)。

如图所示,综指精确的在885点的胜图自动费氏线获得扶持,所以885点是综指当前的支持水平,布林中频带(Bollinger Bands)则是综指的重要动态支持水平,综指接下来的阻力是900点的心理阻力及905点的胜图自动费氏线。

如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量周五减少20%,不过还是保持在40天的成交量平均线(VMA)以上。这表示虽然市场的交投稍微减退,但还是属于一个活跃的格局。通常若综进入调整巩固时,成交量出现萎缩是属于正常的。无论如何,若综指要突破900点心理阻力水平的话,那成交量就必须高于40天的平均值,那综指才能有足够的承接力量使其走高。

如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)依然维持在70%水平以上的短期强势区域里,这表示综指短期还未转弱。无论如何,若随机指标随后跌破70%水平的话,那是综指开始出现技术调整的讯号。

总的来说,当布林频带收窄时,辅助指标(Secondary Indicators)的讯号(如随机指标)往往会显得过敏,所以技术分析还是以主要指标如布林频带为根基。综指接下来在出现技术调整时若能在布林中频带上获得扶持的话,那综指的后市还是有望转强。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 27/03/2009
As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands Width expansion rate reduced from 15% to 2%, suggesting that the Bollinger Bands Width is likely to contract. If the Bollinger Bands Width should contract, it would be a signal suggesting a consolidation for the KLCI.

Nevertheless, the KLCI closed above the 885 Fibonacci Retracement, and therefore, the 885 level is now the immediate support, followed by the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic support, while the resistance is still at 900 psychological level.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 20%, with volume still above the 40-day VMA level. This shows that despite the decline in volume, the market is still relatively well-participated. If the KLCI should consolidate, a lower volume during the consolidation is usually normal.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is still above 70% level, which is the short term bullish region. This shows that the short term movement of the KLCI has not turned negative. If the Stochastic should break below 70% level, it would suggests a beginning of a consolidation or technical correction for the KLCI.

Whenever the Bollinger Bands Width contracts, Secondary Indicators signals are usually over-sensitive. Therefore, during a consolidation, it is still a better idea to follow Primary Indicator like Bollinger Bands.

Nevertheless, should the KLCI have a correction, its target will be at the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic support. If the KLCI should remained supported by the Bollinger Middle Band, there is still a chance for the KLCI to resume its positive movement after the consolidation or correction.
HAPPY INVESTING !!!

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