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Thursday, March 19, 2009

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 综合指数 2009年 03月 19日 / Composite Index 19/03/2009

综合指数 2009年 03月 19日
如图中箭头A所示,综合指数上扬突破了布林中频带的动态阻力水平,综指接下来精确的在853点的胜图自动费氏线上遇阻力,全日上扬4.22点或0.5%。综指目前的支持水平是刚刚突破的布林中频带及833点的胜图自动费氏线,阻力水平则依然是853点的胜图自动费氏线。

虽然综指突破了布林中频带,不过布林频带还正在收窄中,这表示综指目前还是属于巩固的格局中。无论如何,只要布林频带重新打开时综指还是处于布林中频带以上的话,届时综指将有望转强出现涨势。

如图中箭头B所示,虽然综指上扬,不过马股总成交量却减少了11.4%,所以成交量依然处于40天的成交量平均线(VMA)之下。一般上当成交量低于40天平均值时代表市场的交投属于淡静,这显示投资者对目前市场的信心仍然不足,所以综指在缺乏承接力量下暂时还是难以转强。

如图中C圈所示,平均乖离的振荡指标(MACD Histogram)继续上升,这表示综指还是有转强的迹象。只要振荡指标持续上扬的话,那综指短期的走势将有望改善,直到平均乖离振荡指标形成相对的圆顶(Rounding Top)为止.

总的来说,综指开始有止跌回弹的迹象。无论如何,当布林频带再度明显打开时,综指必须保持在布林中频带以上,再配合成交量高于40天的平均值,那才能确认综指出现上扬趋势的讯号。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 19/03/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI breaks above the Bollinger Middle Band, but resisted by the 853 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement. Therefore, the immediate support for the KLCI is at the Bollinger Middle Band and the 833 Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance is still at 853 Fibonacci Retracement.

Although the KLCI is now above the Bollinger Middle Band, the Bollinger Bands Width remains contracting, suggesting the consolidation of the KLCI is still in place.

As indicated by B, total market volume on Wednesday declined 11.4%, while still below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market is still relatively quiet as investors confidence is still low. Therefore, the KLCI is less likely to pick some strength if volume should remains relatively low.
As circled at C, the MACD histogram continue to climb with the rounding bottom being intact. This suggests that the short term movement of the KLCI is improving. The short term improvement is expected to continue until the MACD histogram should form a rounding top.

In conclusion, in order to signal bullish movement, the KLCI must remain above the Bollinger Middle Band with the Bollinger Bands Width expanding, together with volume above the 40-day VMA level.
HAPPY TRADING

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