TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Composite Index 23/03/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 03月 23日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 23/03/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI breaks above the 869 Fibonacci Retracement line and testing the L2 descending line of the Symmetrical Triangle, closing 21.48 points higher to 878.30 points. Next resistance for the KLCI is at 885 Fibonacci Retracement while the supports are at the 869 Fibonacci Retracement and the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic support.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded 20%, with the KLCI above the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market participation has increased significantly as it seems like investors are regaining their confident. Therefore, as long as the market volume should remain above the 40-day VMA level, the KLCI movement is likely to be positive.

As circled at C, the Stochastic touched 100% on Monday, suggesting that the short term movement of the KLCI is indeed bullish. However, this also suggests that the KLCI is getting over-bought. If the Stochastic should break below 90% level, it would be a signal suggesting a possible technical correction. Nevertheless, as long as the Stochastic is still above 70%, the short term movement for the KLCI is still bullish biased.

With the bullish Bollinger Bands Width signals coupled with significant increased of volume, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is bullish biased. If the KLCI should have a technical correction, the Bollinger Middle Band would be the first target. However, if the KLCI should rebound from the Bollinger Middle Band again, it would be a signal suggesting a continuation of the rally.

综合指数 2009年 03月 23日
如图所示，由于布林频带（Bollinger Band）打开20%，而综合指数继续的处于布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以上，所以综指大力上扬。接下来只要布林频带继续打开的话，那综指将有望维持目前上扬的趋势。

如图中箭头A所示，综指上扬突破了869点的胜图自动费氏阻力线，惟在下降趋势线L2精确的遇阻，所以L2成为综指接下来的主要动态阻力线。综指以全日最高点878.30点挂收，上扬21.48点或2.5%，创下自1月5日的最大单日涨幅。综指当前的阻力水平为885点的胜图自动费氏线，支持水平则是869点及布林中频带的动态支持水平。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量明显增加111.7%，所以突破了40天的成交量平均线（VMA）。这表示市场的交投在综指上扬的当儿活跃起来，确认布林频带转强的讯号。接下来只要成交量能够继续保持在40天的成交量平均值以上的话，那综指将的后市将继续看高一线。

如图中C圈所示，随机指标迅速达到100%的水平，这表示综指短期走势出现涨势，无论如何，随机指标达到100%都是代表市场短期出现超买的现象。若随机指标接下来跌破90%的话，那将是综指有出现技术调整的讯号。整体上，随机指标接下来只要能够继续保持在70%水平以上的话，那综指短期将继续处于强势中。

总的来说，在区域股市带动下，投资者购兴开始增加，使到成交量明显上扬，这表示投资者有对市场恢复信心的迹象。综指将继续维持目前的涨势，直到布林频带打开的幅度开始减低或收窄为止，若综指出现技术调整的话，布林中频带将会是第一个调整目标，一般上只要综指能够在布林中频带获得扶持的话，那综指将有望更上一层楼。