TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 综合指数 2009年 03月 11日 / Composite Index 11/03/2009

综合指数 2009年 03月 11日

由于隔夜美国道琼指数回弹379.44点，这使到亚太区域股市纷纷回弹，综合指数周三也以高姿态开市，一度上扬至863.73点。无论如何，综指随后在套利活动下回软，按日反而下跌4.88点。如图中箭头A显示，综指跌破了853点的胜图自动费氏线，所以综指接下来的支持水平将是833点的胜图自动费氏线，阻力水平则是刚刚跌破的853点。

另一方面，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）继续的打开12%，同时综指依然处于布林中频带之下，所以综指还是有下跌的风险，直到布林频带开始收窄为止，综指才有望出现进入巩固或出现回弹的讯号。

如图中箭头B显示，马股的总成交量稍微增加了0.8%，达到了40天的成交量移动平均线（VMA）。这显示虽然综指下跌，不过交投却有开始增加的迹象，这是投资者开始吸购股票的讯号。无论如何，由于综指下跌，这显示卖方还是稍微领先，所以如果综指持续下跌而成交量也增加的话，那将会加剧综指的跌势。

如图中C圈指示，随机指标（Stochastic）再度跌破10%水平，这表示了综指短期再出现超卖的讯号，所以在近期内是有望出现技术反弹。无论如何，随机指标必须要上扬突破30%水平，那综指才有望出现短期转强的走势。

总的来说，随机指标显示综指有短期技术反弹的迹象，不过这是辅助指标（Secondary Indicators）的讯号，综指的后市还是有待主要指标（Primary Indicators）如布林频带来确认。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 11/03/2009
As the Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounded nearly 380 points, the KLCI opened higher on Wednesday, and had its daily high up to 863.73 points. However, the KLCI failed to sustain its early gain and started giving back all its gain to close at 850.37 points, down 4.88 points. Support for the KLCI is now at 833 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance is at 853 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement. (Study A)

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded another 12%, with the KLCI remains below the Bollinger Middle Band. Therefore, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still bearish biased, until the Bollinger Bands Width should contract.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 0.8%, and getting closer to the 40-day VMA level. If market volume should break above the 40-day VMA level, it would suggests that the overall market participation is relatively high, thus likely to lift the market sentiment. However, if the KLCI should continue falling with relatively higher volume, it would imply an increased of selling pressure.

As circled at C, the Stochastic remained below 10% level, which is a short term over-sold signal. Therefore, the short term technical rebound is still due to take place. Still, the Stochastic has to break above 30% level, in order to signal a beginning of a technical rebound.

Despite a chance of a technical rebound as suggested by the Stochastic, the priority of the analysis should be based on the primary indicators such as the Bollinger Bands. Therefore, with the Bollinger Bands Width still expanding, the bearish biased movement of the KLCI is likely to continue.

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Technical Analysis Composite Index 02/03/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 03月 02日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 02/03/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI broke below the L1 line of the Symmetrical Triangle, ended the day lower with a daily low touching the 869 Fibonacci Retracement before closing at 876.56 points, down 14.11 points. Therefore, the 869 Fibonacci Retracement is now the support for the KLCI, while the resistance is at the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic resistance and the 885 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded 12% with the KLCI remained below the Bollinger Middle Band, and therefore, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still bearish biased. The bearish biased view of the KLCI is expected to continue until the Bollinger Bands Width contracts again.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 6% on Monday, with volume above the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market is now actively participated. However, the increased of volume has resulted the drop of the KLCI, thus suggested some increased of selling pressure. If the KLCI should continue to drop with higher volume, the selling is expected to be stronger.

As circled at C, the Stochastic remained below 30% level, which is the short term bearish region. Provided that the Stochastic is still below 30% level, the short term market movement for the KLCI expected to be bearish biased.

After consolidated in the Symmetrical Triangle for nearly two months, the KLCI finally broke out below the Symmetrical Triangle and ended its consolidation. For now, readers can also monitor the Bollinger Bands signal for the next move. Unless the KLCI could break above the Bollinger Middle Band in the near future, the short term bearish outlook for the KLCI is still intact.

综合指数 2009年 03月 02日

如图中箭头A所示，综合指数周一跌破了对称三角型的L1线，这就是一直来提到综指酝酿已久的新趋势，可惜的是由于综指是向下跌破三角形，所以综指形成了跌势。如图所示，综指开市后便立即下跌，惟综指在869点的胜图自动费氏线精确的获得扶持，综指随后出现技术反弹，使到全日跌幅减少至14.11点或1.6%。综指目前的支持水平是869点的胜图自动费氏线，阻力水平则是布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）的动态阻力水平及885点的胜图自动费氏线。

如图所示，由于布林频带（Bollinger Bands）打开了12%，而综指继续的处于布林中频带之下，所以综指形成了下跌的趋势，直到布林频带再次收窄为止。

如图中箭头B指示，虽然综指下跌，不过马股的总成交量反而增加了6%，继续的处于40天的成交量平均值以上。这表示了目前市场相对活跃，但是却出现在综指形成跌势时，这显示市场卖压相当大，不过也有投资者趁低吸购。无论如何，若综指继续下跌而成交量还是保持在高于40天的平均值的话，那就表示综指的跌势进一步加剧了。

图中C圈指示，随机指标（Stochastic）依然处于30%以下的水平，这表示了综指短期的走势继续的属于弱势中，通常若随机指标维持在30%水平之下的话，综指短期将继续有下跌的风险。

综指在三角形内巩固长达两个月后，综指终于摆脱了这巩固的格局。接下来布林频带将成为主要的技术分析指标，因为除非综指能在近期内上扬突破布林中频带，否则综指后市将继续的看低一线。