TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 综合指数 2009年 03月 11日 / Composite Index 11/03/2009

综合指数 2009年 03月 11日

由于隔夜美国道琼指数回弹379.44点，这使到亚太区域股市纷纷回弹，综合指数周三也以高姿态开市，一度上扬至863.73点。无论如何，综指随后在套利活动下回软，按日反而下跌4.88点。如图中箭头A显示，综指跌破了853点的胜图自动费氏线，所以综指接下来的支持水平将是833点的胜图自动费氏线，阻力水平则是刚刚跌破的853点。

另一方面，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）继续的打开12%，同时综指依然处于布林中频带之下，所以综指还是有下跌的风险，直到布林频带开始收窄为止，综指才有望出现进入巩固或出现回弹的讯号。

如图中箭头B显示，马股的总成交量稍微增加了0.8%，达到了40天的成交量移动平均线（VMA）。这显示虽然综指下跌，不过交投却有开始增加的迹象，这是投资者开始吸购股票的讯号。无论如何，由于综指下跌，这显示卖方还是稍微领先，所以如果综指持续下跌而成交量也增加的话，那将会加剧综指的跌势。

如图中C圈指示，随机指标（Stochastic）再度跌破10%水平，这表示了综指短期再出现超卖的讯号，所以在近期内是有望出现技术反弹。无论如何，随机指标必须要上扬突破30%水平，那综指才有望出现短期转强的走势。

总的来说，随机指标显示综指有短期技术反弹的迹象，不过这是辅助指标（Secondary Indicators）的讯号，综指的后市还是有待主要指标（Primary Indicators）如布林频带来确认。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 11/03/2009
As the Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounded nearly 380 points, the KLCI opened higher on Wednesday, and had its daily high up to 863.73 points. However, the KLCI failed to sustain its early gain and started giving back all its gain to close at 850.37 points, down 4.88 points. Support for the KLCI is now at 833 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance is at 853 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement. (Study A)

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded another 12%, with the KLCI remains below the Bollinger Middle Band. Therefore, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still bearish biased, until the Bollinger Bands Width should contract.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 0.8%, and getting closer to the 40-day VMA level. If market volume should break above the 40-day VMA level, it would suggests that the overall market participation is relatively high, thus likely to lift the market sentiment. However, if the KLCI should continue falling with relatively higher volume, it would imply an increased of selling pressure.

As circled at C, the Stochastic remained below 10% level, which is a short term over-sold signal. Therefore, the short term technical rebound is still due to take place. Still, the Stochastic has to break above 30% level, in order to signal a beginning of a technical rebound.

Despite a chance of a technical rebound as suggested by the Stochastic, the priority of the analysis should be based on the primary indicators such as the Bollinger Bands. Therefore, with the Bollinger Bands Width still expanding, the bearish biased movement of the KLCI is likely to continue.

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