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Wednesday, July 8, 2009

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 7月 08日 / Composite Index 08/07/2009

综合指数 2009年 7月 08日
如图中箭头A所示,布林频带(Bollinger Bands)进一步收窄37%,这表示富时综合指数继续维持于盘整格局,这也显示综指正在酝酿着一个新走势。由于布林频带目前已经收得相当窄小,所以有望在近期内将重新打开,届时综指将摆脱盘整格局,开始新的走势。
如图所示,综指依然维持于对称三角形(Symmetrical Triangle)内,继续显示和布林频带一致的讯号。综指阻力水平依然是L2的动态阻力线及布林中频带,支持水平则是L1的动态支持线及1035点胜图自动费氏线。
如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量虽然增加14.8%,但依然处于40天的成交量平均线(VMA)以下,这表示目前市场的交投依然不足,投资者对马股未能完全恢复信心。换句话说,若成交量还是低于40天的成交量平均值,市场依然未能有足够的承接力来推高综指。
如图中箭头C所示,平均乖离振荡指标(MACD Histogram)周三继续下滑,依然显示着圆顶(Rounding Top)的讯号,这表示综指短期走势还是偏弱,直到平均乖离振荡指标形成圆底(Rounding Bottom)为止。
综指已经处于三角形的尾端,加上布林频带已经收的非常狭窄,所以综指近期内将有望摆脱盘整格局。接下来若综指能够上扬突破三角形的L2线,再加上成交量明显增加,那综指有望上探1095.91点的胜图自动费氏线;相反的,若综指跌破三角形的L1线,那综指后市将看低一线。
Composite Index 08/07/2009
As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted another 37% on Wednesday, as the KLCI ended 0.89 points lower. Since the Bollinger Bands Width is already narrowed, it implies that the Bollinger Bands Width is about to re-expand in the near future, thus the KLCI will begin its new movement.
As shown on the chart above, the KLCI remains in the Symmetrical Triangle, as the consolidation continues. Resistance for the KLCI remains at the Bollinger Middle Band and the L2 line, while the supports are still at the L1 line and 1035 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.
As indicated by B, total market volume increased 14.8%, but still further below the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that the market confidence is still low, thus the KLCI is less likely to regain its strength amid the low market participation.
As indicated by C, the MACD histogram is still falling, while the Rounding Top remains intact. This shows that the short term movement of the KLCI is still weakening. The weakening movement is expected to continue, until the MACD histogram should form a Rounding Bottom.
With the KLCI nearing the end the of the Symmetrical Triangle, coupled with the narrowed Bollinger Bands Width, the KLCI is expected to break away from the consolidation soon. If the KLCI should break above the L2 line with substantial volume, it is likely to test the 1095.91 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement. Otherwise, if the KLCI should break below the L1 line, the weaker KLCI movement shall remains intact.

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