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Saturday, July 11, 2009

Accumulation for select bluechips mantain FBM KLCI above 1,050 support

FOLLOW-THROUGH buying support for key heavyweight index-linked counters helped the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Composite Index (FBM KLCI) to stay above its critical support of 1,050 points last week.
The FBM KLCI opened marginally lower at 1,070.78 before drifting lower to its intra-day low of 1,062.65 on Monday, closing at 1,065.83, giving a day-on-day loss of 6.86 points, or 0.64 per cent.
Overnight weakness on Wall Street and follow-through consolidations on regional stock markets sent share prices on Bursa Malaysia trending within a tight trading range on Tuesday. The FBM KLCI closed at 1,066.36, a day-on-day rise of 0.53 point, or 0.05 per cent.
Continuing weakness on the major regional stock markets sent share prices on Bursa Malaysia consolidating within range-bound activities on Wednesday. The FBM KLCI closed at 1,065.47, giving a day-on-day loss of 0.89 point, or 0.08 per cent.
Share prices on Bursa Malaysia rebounded in late trading on Thursday. The benchmark index closed marginally higher at 1,065.68, giving a day-on-day gain of 0.21 point, or 0.02 per cent.
The FBM KLCI closed at 1,067.76 up 2.08 points, or 0.20 per cent, yesterday. For the week, it posted a loss of 4.93 points, or 0.46 per cent.
Among the other indices, the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Second Board Index eased 15.58 points, or 0.33 per cent to 4,709.49 while the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Mesdaq Index fell 109.58 points, or 2.76 per cent, to 3,866.73.
The following are the readings of some of the FBM KLCI's technical indicators:
* Moving Averages: The KLCI had since stayed above its 50- 100- and 200-day moving averages. It had since stayed below its 10-, 20- and 30-day moving averages.
* Momentum Index: Its short-term momentum index stayed below the support of its neutral reference line.
* On Balance Volume (OBV): Its short-term OBV trend stayed above the support of its 10-day exponential moving averages.
* Relative Strength Index (RSI): Its 14-day RSI stood at the 53.59 per cent level yesterday.

Outlook
The FBM KLCI consolidated in the first three trading days before hitting its intra-week low of 1,058.12 on Wednesday, staging a re-test of this column's envisaged support zone (1,035 to 1,069 levels).
Recent consolidations saw the FBM KLCI continuing to stay comfortably above its immediate downside support (See FBM KLCI's weekly chart A3:A4). It continued to stay above its resistance-turned-support trendline (A7:A8).
Chartwise, the FBM KLCI's daily trend continued to stay below the support of its revised intermediate-term uptrend (See FBM KLCI's daily chart B7:B8) over the last five trading days. It stayed decisively above its intermediate-term downtrend (B5:B6).
The FBM KLCI's weekly fast Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator stayed above the weekly slow MACD indicator yesterday. Its daily and monthly fast MACDs continued to stay marginally below their respective slow MACDs.
The FBM KLCI's 14-day RSI stayed at the 53.59 per cent level on Thursday. Its 14-week and 14-month Relative Strength Index (RSI) stayed at the 63.99 and 49.93 per cent levels respectively.

Last week, this column commented that the FBM KLCI's technical pullback was in order and the technical pullback was not expected to be a very sharp one.
This column was right on both counts. As it turned out, the FBM KLCI consolidated within a tight trading range of 14.18 points (1,058.12 to 1,072.30).
The FBM KLCI will continue to consolidate its recent gains within range-bound trading activities. There is an even chance that the FBM KLCI may spring a surprise in reversing out of its faltering field trend.
Next week, the KLCI's envisaged resistance zone hovers at the 1,071 to 1,105 levels while its immediate downside support is at the 1,030 to 1,064 levels.
The subject expressed above is based purely on technical analysis and opinions of the writer. It is not a solicitation to buy or sell.

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