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Wednesday, July 15, 2009

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 14/07/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 7月 14日

Composite Index 14/07/2009
As indicated by A, after wandering at the breaking point of the Symmetrical Triangle for a few days, the FBM KLCI finally break above the Symmetrical Triangle L2 resistance line, up 15.97 points on Tuesday, suggesting the KLCI is likely to regain some strength. Next resistance for the KLCI is seen at the 1095.91 Fibonacci Retracement while the supports are at Bollinger Middle Band and L1 line.
As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded 7%, with the KLCI breaking above the Bollinger Middle Band. If the Bollinger Bands Width should continue to expand, it would confirm the Bollinger Inversion Signal, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is expected to be bullish biased.
As indicated by B, total market volume increased 43.2%, suggesting that investors are slowly regaining some confidence. However, total market volume is still below the 40-day VMA level, which has not reached the ideal bullish level. Nevertheless, if volume should increased, it would help the KLCI to test the next resistance at 1095.91 Fibonacci Retracement.
As circled at C, the RSI rebounded on Tuesday, forming a rounding bottom, which suggests a technical rebound for the KLCI. If the MACD histogram should remain rising, the short term movement of the KLCI is expected to be positive biased, until the MACD histogram should form a rounding top.
Despite the bullish break out of the Symmetrical Triangle, total market volume failed to reach the 40-day VMA level. Therefore, this is not the strongest breakout signal. Nonetheless, breaking above the L2 line is an important criteria for the KLCI to turn bullish. If volume should continue to increase, the KLCI is likely to test its next resistance at 1095.91.
综合指数 2009年 7月 14日
如图中箭头A所示,富时大马综指指数在对称三角形突破的临界点徘徊数日后,终于上扬突破对称三角形(Symmetrical Triangle)的L2阻力线及布林中频带,按日上扬15.97点,所以综指有望摆脱盘整格局转强。综指下一道阻力水平落在1095.91点的胜图自动费氏线,支持水平则是布林中频带的动态支持线及L1的上升趋势线。
如图所示,布林频带周二继续打开(+7%),综指从布林中频带以下上扬突破布林中频带,接下来若布林频带再度打开而综指继续处于布林中频带以上,那将确认胜图布林反转讯号(WinChart Bollinger Inversion Signal),综指有望持续转强,上探1095.91点的阻力水平。
如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量增加43.2%,这表示投资开始对市场恢复信心,但成交量依然未能达到40天的成交量平均线(VMA),未达到涨势的健康水平。无论如何,若成交量接下来能够继续增加,那将有助于综指维持于上扬格局,后市有望更上一层楼。
如图中C圈所示,平均乖离振荡指标(MACD Histogram)周二回弹,形成圆底(Rounding Bottom),这是综指短期反弹的讯号,接下来若平均乖离振荡指标能够继续上扬,那综指短期有望走高,直到平均乖离振荡指标形成圆顶(Rounding Top)为止。
综指周二上扬突破盘整形成已久的三角形,惟成交量未能达到40天的成交量平均值,所以并未最理想的转强讯号。无论如何,综指上扬突破三角形是转强的重要条件之一,接下来若成交量能够增加,那综指将有助于综指上探1095.91点的阻力水平。

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