TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 7月 22日 / Composite Index 22/07/2009

综合指数 2009年 7月 22日

在隔夜美国道指继续上扬的带动之下，富时大马综合指数周三再创新高，一度上扬至1160.61点的全日最高，惟在接近1163点的胜图自动费氏阻力线时，出现套利活动，导致综指午盘开始回调，按日以1148.70点挂收，上扬14点或1.2%。

如图中箭头A所示，布林频带继续打开（+11%），这表示综指目前依然处于涨势中。接下来若布林频带继续打开，综指短期依然有上扬的空间，直到布林频带开始收窄为止，届时综指将进入调整巩固。综指当前阻力水平依然是1163点的胜图自动费氏线，支持水平则是1096点及布林中频带。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量周三增加21.7%，虽然未能达到40天的成交量平均线（VMA），但已经相当接近。接下来若成交量能够达到40天的成交量平均值，那将是市场的交投已达到足够的水平，有助于综指维持上扬趋势。
如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）稍微下滑，但依然处于70%水平以上，这表示综指短期依然属于强势中，直到随机指标跌破70%为止，届时是综指短期开始转弱或进入调整巩固的讯号。
虽然综指周三再度创新高，成交量却未能达到40天平均线的理想水平，这表示整体涨势并未全面，有待市场进一步的指引。另一方面，在午盘出现的套利活动拉低综指的表现，所以综指技术调整的隐忧仍然存在。无论如何，只要综指能在布林中频带获得扶持，那短期综指的涨势走势并未受到破坏。

Composite Index 22/07/2009

As lead by the over-night gain of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the KLCI touched yet another new high on Wednesday. However, the KLCI had its intra-day high reaching 1160.61 points, very closed to the 1163 Fibonacci Retracement resistance; therefore, some profit taking activities took place, and the KLCI retreated before closing at 1148.70 points, up 14 points or 1.2%.

As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded another 11%, with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, suggesting the short term movement of the KLCI is still bullish biased. If the Bollinger Bands Width should contract, it would be a signal suggesting a consolidation for the KLCI.

Nonetheless, resistance for the KLCI remains at 1163 Fibonacci Retracement while the supports are still at 1096 and the Bollinger Middle Band.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 21.7%, but still below the 40-day VMA level. Nevertheless, total market volume is getting closer to the 40-day VMA level, and if it should break above the 40-day VMA level, it would help maintain the current positive market sentiment, thus a positive element to sustain the current bullish movement.
As circled at C, the Stochastic retreated slightly but still above 70% level, which suggests that the short term bullish movement of the KLCI remains intact. If the Stochastic should break below 70% level, it would be a signal suggesting a technical correction or consolidation for the KLCI.

Despite breaking yet another new high, total market volume remains below the 40-day VMA level, suggesting that the current uptrend is not too well-received by investors, therefore, the risk of a technical correction remains intact. Nonetheless, should the KLCI be supported by the Bollinger Middle Band, the short term bullish movement of the KLCI remains intact.