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Friday, July 24, 2009

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 23/07/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 7月 23日

Composite Index 23/07/2009
As shown on the chart above, the KLCI ended 3.45 points higher on Thursday, but still below the 1163 Fibonacci Retracement. Therefore, 1163 Fibonacci Retracement is still the resistance for the KLCI while 1096 and the Bollinger Middle Band are the supports for the KLCI.
As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands Width expansion rate declined to only 5%, from the previous 11%. This suggests that the Bollinger Bands Width might be contracting. If the Bollinger Bands Width should contract, it would be a signal suggesting a technical correction or a consolidation for the KLCI.
As indicated by B, total market volume declined 6.8%, with volume still below the 40-day VMA level. This is due to the lack of positive factors as investors confidence about the market has not fully recovered. Nevertheless, if volume should increase and break above the 40-day VMA level, it would help to sustain the market bullish biased sentiment, thus pushing the KLCI higher.
As circled at C, the MACD histogram is still rising, while no rounding top is sighted at the moment. This shows that the short term movement of the KLCI is still bullish biased. If the MACD histogram should form a rounding top, it would be a signal suggesting a consolidation for the KLCI.
Even since breaking above the Symmetrical Triangle, the KLCI has gained a total of 88.49 points or 8.3%, and until now, no significant technical correction yet. Since there is a slight implication that the Bollinger Bands Width might be contracting soon, investors may want to monitor the Bollinger Bands Width, for if the Bollinger Bands Width should contract, the KLCI would consolidate.
综合指数 2009年 7月 23日
如图所示,富时大马综合指数周四虽然上扬3.45点,但依然未能突破1163点胜图自动费氏阻力线,所以1163点继续成为综指当前的阻力水平,支持水平则是1096点及布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)。
如图中箭头A所示,布林频带打开幅度从11%减至5%,这表示布林频带有开始收窄的迹象。接下来若布林频带开始收窄,便是综指进入调整巩固的讯号,届时布林中频带将是综指调整的第一个目标。
由于缺乏新的利好因素,周四马股总成交量减少6.8%。所以成交量继续处于40天的成交量平均线(VMA)以下(参考箭头B),这表示投资者对市场还未完全恢复信心,所以市场的交投未能达到最理想水平。无论如何,接下来若成交量能增加并达到40天的平均值,那将有助于综指维持涨势,更上一层楼。
如图中C圈所示,平均乖离的振荡指标(MACD Histogram)继续上扬,至今依然未形成圆顶(Rounding Top),这表示综指短期依然处于强势中,直到平均乖离振荡指标形成圆顶为止,届时是综指进入盘整格局的讯号。
综指自上扬突破对称三角形(Symmetrical Triangle)以来,一共上扬88.49点或8.3%,至今还未出现显著的技术调整;目前布林频带有收窄的迹象,接下来若布林频带收窄时,便是综指进入盘整格局的讯号。

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