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Wednesday, July 29, 2009

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 7月 28日 / Composite Index 28/07/2009

综合指数 2009年 7月 28日
如图所示,富时大马综合指数周二上扬突破1163点的胜图自动费氏阻力线,创下自2008年7月1日来的新高,所以综指接下来的阻力水平将落在1186点的胜图自动费氏线,支持水平则是1163点及布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)的动态支持线。
如图中箭头A所示,布林频带周二收窄11%,惟综指没有调整反而再创新高,这表示综指正在巩固格局中回弹。由于综指继续获得布林中频带的扶持,接下来若布林频带再度打开,综指便有望更上一层楼。

马股总成交量周二增加13.8%,但依然未能达到40天的成交量平均线(VMA)。不过,如图中箭头B所示,成交量越来越接近40天的平均值,这表示投资者开始对市场恢复信心,若成交量能够达到40天的平均值,那将有助于综指维持目前的涨势。

如图中C圈所示,平均乖离的振荡指标(MACD histogram)依然显示圆顶(Rounding Top),这表示综指短期还是属于调整巩固的格局中,接下来若平均乖离振荡指标回升形成圆底(Rounding Bottom)时,综指恢复强势的讯号将获得确认。
虽然技术指标如布林频带及平均乖离振荡指标还未确认综指恢复上扬格局,但是只要综指上扬能够配合成交量的增加,那显示综指开始恢复上扬的趋势,接下来若成交量能够达到40天平均值的理想水平,综指后市有望继续走高,而布林中频带将继续为综指上扬的动态支持线。
Composite Index 28/07/2009
As shown on the chart above, the KLCI broke above the 1163 Fibonacci Retracement important resistance, marking yet another new high since 1st of July, 2008. Therefore, the next resistance for the KLCI is seen at 1186 Fibonacci Retracement while the 1163 level and the Bollinger Middle Band are the supports for the KLCI.
As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands contracted 11%, but the KLCI ended higher, suggesting the KLCI is rebounding from its consolidation. With the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is bullish biased. If the Bollinger Bands Width should re-expand, with the KLCI remains above the Bollinger Middle Band, more upside room for the KLCI is expected.
As indicated by B, total market volume increased 13.8%, but still below the 40-day VMA level. Nevertheless, total market volume is getting closer to the 40-day VMA level, as investors are feeling more confident about the market. If volume should reach 40-day VMA level, it would help lifting the market sentiment.
As circled at C, the MACD histogram is still showing a Rounding Top, suggesting the KLCI short term is still in consolidation stage. If the MACD histogram should tick up and form a Rounding Bottom, it would be a signal suggesting the KLCI is resuming its rally.
Although indicators like Bollinger Bands and the MACD histogram are still showing consolidation signal, the KLCI ended higher with volume increased. Provided that the KLCI rally is supported with rising volume, the rally is valid. Ideally, the best confirmation of a bullish movement is to have volume above the 40-day VMA level, meanwhile, the Bollinger Middle Band is still serving as the dynamic support for the KLCI.

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