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Thursday, July 16, 2009

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 15/07/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 7月 15日

综合指数 2009年 7月 15日
如图中箭头A所示,富时大马综合指数自上扬突破对称三角形后,周三继续走高,并且创下1104.87点的盘中新高,按日上扬17.61点或1.6%,成功于11个月的新高闭市。综指虽然成功上扬突破对称三角形,但却未算完全摆脱1095.91点的阻力水平,综指支持水平则依然是布林中频带及L1线。
如图所示,布林频带(Bollinger Bands)进一步的打开(+61%),而综指则继续处于布林中频带以上,所以综指进一步转强。接下来若布林频带能够继续打开,综指将有望继续转强。
如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量明显增加73%,达到40天的成交量平均线(VMA),这表示市场的成交量已经达到上扬格局的理想水平,有足够的承接力来推高综指。换句话说,接下来只要成交量能够维持在40天的成交量平均值以上,那将有助于综指维持上扬格局。
如图中C圈所示,平均乖离振荡指标(MACD histogram)再度上扬,所以继续维持圆底(Rounding Bottom)的短期转强讯号。目前平均乖离振荡指标已经很接近零轴,接下来若能上扬突破零轴进入正值区域,那将表示综指维持在短期上扬趋势中,直到振荡指标开始下滑,形成圆顶(Rounding Top)为止。
虽然综指周三创下新高,但只是稍微突破1095.91点的阻力水平,所以未能真正摆脱形成双重顶(Double Top)的风险。无论如何,接下来若布林频带能够继续打开,而综指依然处于布林中频带以上,再加上成交量维持在40天的成交量平均值以上,综指后市有望更上一层楼。
Composite Index 15/07/2009
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI continued its rally after Tuesday's break out above the Symmetrical Triangle, marked an intra-day new high of 1104.87 points, before closing the day at 1097.24 points, up 17.61 points or 1.6%. Supports for the KLCI are at the Bollinger Middle Band as well as the L1 line, while the resistance is still at 1095.91 level.
As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded 61%, with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, therefore, the bullish Bollinger Bands signal remains intact. If the Bollinger Bands Width should continue to expand, with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, the outlook for the KLCI is expected to be positive biased.
As indicated by B, total market volume increased 73%, with volume now reaching the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market participation is now at a healthy level, as investors confidence about the market is gradually improving. In short, if volume should remain above the 40-day VMA level, the KLCI rally is likely to sustain.
As circled at C, the MACD histogram continue rising, while still showing a Rounding bottom signal. This suggests the short term movement of the KLCI is still bullish biased. If the MACD histogram should continue rising and breaking above the zero level, the short term movement of the KLCI is likely to continue, until the MACD histogram should form a Rounding Top.
Despite the KLCI breaking new high, it only managed to close marginally above the 1095.91 resistance level. Therefore, there is still a risk of the KLCI in forming a Double Top pattern. Nevertheless, if the Bollinger Bands Width should continue to expand with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, coupled with volume above the 40-day VMA level, the current positive movement of the KLCI is expected to continue.

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