On Monday the FBM-KLCI marked another new high with 1140 points, before closing the day at 1139.25 points, up 18.35 points or 1.6%. Resistance for the KLCI is still at 1163 Fibonacci Retracement while the supports are seen at 1096 and Bollinger Middle Band.
As circled at A, the KLCI is now the 3rd day staying above the 20-day Bollinger Upper Band, suggesting the KLCI short term movement is indeed strong, but over-heated, and there is still a chance of a pullback effect as a form of technical correction. Nevertheless, the 10-day Bollinger Bands Width expanded 33%, suggesting the KLCI short term is still strong. Until the Bollinger Bands Width should contract, it would be a signal suggesting a consolidation for the KLCI.
As indicated by B, total market volume increased only 7.4%, while still below the 40-day VMA level, despite the KLCI breaking another new high.
As circled at A, the KLCI is now the 3rd day staying above the 20-day Bollinger Upper Band, suggesting the KLCI short term movement is indeed strong, but over-heated, and there is still a chance of a pullback effect as a form of technical correction. Nevertheless, the 10-day Bollinger Bands Width expanded 33%, suggesting the KLCI short term is still strong. Until the Bollinger Bands Width should contract, it would be a signal suggesting a consolidation for the KLCI.
As indicated by B, total market volume increased only 7.4%, while still below the 40-day VMA level, despite the KLCI breaking another new high.
This shows that the market participation is relatively insufficient, as investors are being cautious while waiting for clearer leads.
Generally, a healthy uptrend must have volume above the 40-day VMA level to support its rally. Therefore, the sustainability of the currently rally is still doubtful if volume should failed to return to above 40-day VMA level.As circled at C, the Stochastic is still near 100%, which is the short term over-bought region, suggesting the short term movement of the KLCI is over-heated. Nevertheless, provided that the Stochastic is still above 70% level, the short term movement of the KLCI is still bullish biased. If the Stochastic should break below 70% level, it would be a signal suggesting a beginning of a technical correction.
As lead my positive performance of the regional markets, the KLCI ended higher, despite the insufficient market volume. This shows that the confidence of investors is still not fully restored. In short, volume above the 40-day VMA level is the main fuel to the KLCI rally, and therefore, to sustain the rally, total market volume has to return to above 40-day VMA level.
综合指数 2009年 7月 20日
富时大马综合指数周一再度上扬并创下1140点的新高，以1139.25点挂收，上扬18.35点或1.6%。综指目前阻力水平依然处于1163点胜图自动费氏线，支持水平则是1096点及10天的布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）。
如图中A圈所示，综指已经第3日处于20天的布林上频带（20-day Bollinger upper band），这意味着综指虽然有短期过热的现象，所以面对拉回效应（Pull-Back Effect）的技术调整，不过由于10天布林频带进一步打开33%，这表示综指依然处于在上扬格局中，直到布林频带开始收窄为止，届时便是综指进入盘整的讯号。
如图中箭头B所示，尽管综指再创新高，马股总成交量只稍微增加7.4%，至今依然未能到达40天的成交量平均线（VMA）。这表示投资者还是谨慎看待综指的后市，等待新的指引，一般上健康的涨势必须要获得成交量高于40天的平均值的扶持，涨势才能长期维持下去。换句话说，接下来若成交量依然未能达到40天的成交量平均值，那综指短期涨势能否持续将面对严峻的考验。
如图中C圈所示，随机指标再度到达100%水平，发出综指短期过热的讯号。无论如何，只要随机指标继续维持在70%水平以上，综指短期还是处于强势中，直到随机指标跌破70%水平为止，届时才是综指技术调整的开始。
在区域股市继续走高的带动之下，综指再创新高，惟总成交量未能达到40天的平均值，这是综指当前涨势美中不足之处，因为投资者对综指短期涨势未能完全恢复信心，这也成为综指能够维持健康涨势的隐忧。总的来说，成交量是股价上扬不可缺少的主要推动力，若所接下来成交量必须持续增加，那综指涨势才能得以维持下去
如图中A圈所示，综指已经第3日处于20天的布林上频带（20-day Bollinger upper band），这意味着综指虽然有短期过热的现象，所以面对拉回效应（Pull-Back Effect）的技术调整，不过由于10天布林频带进一步打开33%，这表示综指依然处于在上扬格局中，直到布林频带开始收窄为止，届时便是综指进入盘整的讯号。
如图中箭头B所示，尽管综指再创新高，马股总成交量只稍微增加7.4%，至今依然未能到达40天的成交量平均线（VMA）。这表示投资者还是谨慎看待综指的后市，等待新的指引，一般上健康的涨势必须要获得成交量高于40天的平均值的扶持，涨势才能长期维持下去。换句话说，接下来若成交量依然未能达到40天的成交量平均值，那综指短期涨势能否持续将面对严峻的考验。
如图中C圈所示，随机指标再度到达100%水平，发出综指短期过热的讯号。无论如何，只要随机指标继续维持在70%水平以上，综指短期还是处于强势中，直到随机指标跌破70%水平为止，届时才是综指技术调整的开始。在区域股市继续走高的带动之下，综指再创新高，惟总成交量未能达到40天的平均值，这是综指当前涨势美中不足之处，因为投资者对综指短期涨势未能完全恢复信心，这也成为综指能够维持健康涨势的隐忧。总的来说，成交量是股价上扬不可缺少的主要推动力，若所接下来成交量必须持续增加，那综指涨势才能得以维持下去
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