TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 7月 13日 / Composite Index 13/07/2009

综合指数 2009年 7月 13日
如图中箭头A所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）打开6%，富时综合指数继续处于布林中频带以下。虽然布林频带打开的幅度不算明显，但是由于综指继续处于布林中频带以下，接下来若布林频带继续打开，综指就有进一步下跌的风险，直到综指上扬突破布林中频带为止。

尽管布林频带有稍微偏弱的讯号，综指还未跌破对称三角形的L1支持线，所以目前依然处于三角形的盘整格局中。综指阻力水平继续是L2线及布林中频带，支持水平则是1035点及L1线。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量周一减少19.2%，这使到成交量继续处于40天的成交量平均线（VMA）以下，表示市场的交投依然淡静，这是因为投资者对马股依然缺乏信心，继续保持场外观望所致，接下来成交量若还是处于40天的平均值以下，综指后市将继续倾向于疲弱。

如图中C圈所示，虽然平均乖离振荡指标（MACD Histogram）下滑的速度缓慢下来，但依然未能形成圆底（Rounding Bottom），所以综指目前仍然没有转强的讯号。

由于外围因素并未改善，加上马股成交量继续低迷，这使到综指难以突破三角形的L2阻力线，继续在窄幅中盘整。总的来说，综指已经很接近突破对称三角形的临界点，接下来若综指跌破L1线，那综指后市将看低一线；若综指上扬突破L2 线，加上成交量达到40天的平均值，综指则有望转强，上探1095.91点的胜图自动费氏线

Composite Index 13/07/2009
As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded 6%, with the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band. Despite the expansion being insignificant, the KLCI is still below the Bollinger Middle Band, and the immediate outlook is still on the negative side. If the Bollinger Bands Width should expand further, the outlook for the KLCI is downside biased, until it could rebound and break above the Bollinger Middle Band.

As shown on the chart above, the KLCI has not broken below the Symmetrical Triangle, despite the slight negative signal from the Bollinger Bands. Supports for the KLCI remain at the L1 line and the 1035 Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance are still found at the L2 line and the Bollinger Middle Band.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 19.2%, with volume still below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market participation is still weak, as investors' confidence is still low, while waiting on the sidelines for some fresh lead. As long as the market volume is still below the 40-day VMA level, the weakness of the KLCI is expected to continue.

As circled at C, the MACD histogram has not formed a rounding bottom, despite the falling of the MACD histogram is slowing down. Therefore, there is no signal suggesting the KLCI is gaining strength.

While no improvement in the external factors, coupled with the low market participation, the KLCI failed to break above the Symmetrical Triangle L2 line, continued its narrowed consolidation. In short, the KLCI is very closed to the breaking point of the triangle. If the KLCI should break below the L1 line, the downside movement is expected to continue. Otherwise, if the KLCI should break above the L2 line, with volume up to the 40-day VMA level, there is a chance for the KLCI to regain its strength and test the 1095.91 Fibonacci Retracement.