TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 29/07/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 7月 29日

Composite Index 29/07/2009

As shown on the chart above, theKLCI had its intra-day high reaching 1179.08 points, but profit taking activities took place, and pulled down the KLCI to close 7.9 points or 0.7% lower. Since the KLCI is closing around the 1163 level, the 1163 Fibonacci Retracement will be the current support for the KLCI while 1186 Fibonacci Retracement is still the resistance.

Bollinger Bands Width contracted 17% on Wednesday, suggesting the KLCI is still consolidating. As indicated by A, the Bollinger Middle Band is the target of the KLCI consolidation and if the KLCI should rebound from the Bollinger Middle Band, there is a good chance for the KLCI to resume its rally.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased to the 40-day VMA level. However, the KLCI ended lower suggesting some increased of selling. Nevertheless, as the KLCI managed to rebound from its daily low, it suggests that there were some late buying interests.

As circled at C, the MACD histogram is still showing a rounding top, suggesting the consolidation of the KLCI is still in place. In short, the consolidation is expected to carry on until the MACD histogram should form a rounding bottom.

Despite volume rising to the 40-day VMA level, the KLCI ended lower as profit taking took place. Fortunately, some late buying helped the KLCI regain some ground. If the KLCI should have a healthy consolidation above the Bollinger Middle Band, the KLCI is likely to resume its uptrend after the consolidation.

综合指数 2009年 7月 29日

如图所示，富时综合指数一度上扬至1179.08点，惟综指最终在套利活动下回软，综指按日下跌7.9点或0.7%。无论如何，综指精确的在1163点的胜图自动费氏线上获得扶持，所以1163点继续成为综指接下来的重要支持水平，阻力水平则依然是1186点的胜图自动费氏线。

由于布林频带继续收窄（-17%），所以综指在受到持续的卖压下出现技术调整，无论如何接下来布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）将成为综指的动态支持线（参考箭头A）；换句话说，只要综指能在布林中频带获得扶持，那综指有望在技术调整结束后重新恢复上扬的趋势。

如图中箭头B所示，马股总成交量上扬至40天成交量移动平均线（VMA），这显示虽然综指出现技术调整的讯号，惟还是有足够的买盘吸纳套利活动，使到综指闭市前收复失地。

如图中C圈所示，平均乖离的振荡指标（MACD Histogram）继续下滑，所以振荡指标还是维持圆顶（Rounding Top）的形状，这是综指技术调整的讯号，此调整将一直维持至振荡指标形成相对的圆底（Rounding Bottom）为止。

成交量终于成功的增涨至40天的平均值，然而适逢综指出现技术调整，这显示投资者趁机套利，不过若综指调整继续获得良好的扶持及综指并未过度的下跌，综指有望在适度调整后，重新恢复上扬趋势，惟综指不能跌破布林中频带。