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Monday, July 6, 2009

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 7月 06日 / Composite Index 06/07/2009

综合指数 2009年 7月 06日
如图中箭头A所示,综合指数周一跌破布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)的动态支持线,按日下跌6.86点或0.6%,惟布林频带没有继续打开,所以综指还未完全确认进入跌势。
如图所示,综指上周在对称三角形(Symmetrical Triangle)的L2动态阻力线遇阻后回软,目前依然维持于三角形内的盘整格局,所以L2依然是综指的动态阻力线,1035点胜图自动费氏线则依然是综指的支持水平。
如图中箭头B所示,马股总成交量减少30.5%,继续处于40天的成交量平均线(VMA)以下。这表示马股交投依然属于淡静,这是因为投资者对市场未能完全恢复信心,所以保持场外观望所致。换句话说,若接下来成交量未能上扬达到40天的平均值,那综指依然缺乏转强的条件。
如图中箭头C所示,平均乖离的振荡指标(MACD Histogram)开始下滑,有形成圆顶(Rounding Top)的迹象,若接下来平均乖离振荡指标继续下滑形成圆顶,那将是综指短期转弱的讯号,综指短期将有下跌的趋势,直到平均乖离振荡指标形成圆底(Rounding Bottom)为止。
由于布林频带没有进一步打开,加上综指依然处于对称三角形内,所以综指目前依然处于盘整格局内。换句话说,布林频带及对称三角形的讯号都一致表示综指目前正酝酿着一个新的走势,等到布林频带重新打开或综指突破对称三角形时,综指将开始一个新的趋势。
Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 06/07/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI broke below the Bollinger Middle Band on Monday, ended 6.86 points lower to close at 1065.83 points. However, the Bollinger Bands Width did not expand, and therefore, the KLCI has not formed a downtrend yet.
As shown on the chart above, the KLCI remain resisted by the L2 dynamic resistance of the Symmetrical Triangle, and therefore, it is still consolidating with L2 line and the Bollinger Middle Band being the resistance, while the support is still seen at 1035 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.
As indicated by B, total market volume declined 30.5%, while staying below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market participation is indeed insufficient, and it is a sign of low investors' confidence, as investors are still on the sidelines.
Nevertheless, if market volume should remain below 40-day VMA level, the KLCI is not likely to regain its strength.
As circled at C, the MACD histogram started falling, and might be forming a rounding top. If the MACD histogram should continue to fall, it would form a rounding top, thus suggesting a short term weakening signal for the KLCI.
With the Bollinger Bands Width stop expanding, together with the KLCI consolidating within the Symmetrical Triangle, both Bollinger Bands and the chart pattern are suggesting that the KLCI is still preparing for a new movement. The new movement shall only be revealed if the KLCI should break out from the Symmetrical Triangle or the Bollinger Bands Width re-expansion.

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