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Wednesday, July 1, 2009

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 7月 01日 / Composite Index 01/07/2009

综合指数 2009年 7月 01日
如图所示,综合指数周三稍微上扬,但未能成功突破L2对称三角形(Symmetrical Triangle)的动态阻力线,所以综指目前依然处于盘整格局。综指阻力水平依然是1095.91点的胜图自动费氏线,支持水平则依然是布林中频带及1035点的胜图自动费氏线。
如图中箭头A所示,布林频带(Bollinger Bands)稍微打开4%,但这打开的幅度不显著,所以未能完全显示任何明确的讯号。无论如何,由于综指继续处于布林中频带以上,接下来若布林频带明显打开,综指就有望摆脱盘整格局,上探1095.91点的阻力水平。
虽然布林频带有稍微打开的迹象,马股总成交量依然未能达到40天的成交量平均线(VMA),如图中箭头B所示,尽管综指微扬,成交量依然差强人意,与40天的平均值还有一段距离,由此可见投资者对目前的市场未能完全恢复信心,导致马股交投继续属于淡静。
如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)再度的上扬,继续维持于70%水平以上的短期强势区域里,所以综指短期还未出现转弱的迹象。无论如何,随机指标若能够继续处于70%水平以上,那综指短期有望转强。
总的来说,综指继续徘徊在对称三角形的L2 动态阻力线,等待突破,惟缺乏成交量增加至40天平均值的确认,所以综指依然缺乏上扬的重要条件,接下来若综指真的突破L2动态阻力线,而成交量依然没有明显增加,在缺乏承接力的情形下,综指上扬趋势难以维持

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 01/07/2009
As shown on the chart above, the KLCI ended slightly higher on Wednesday, but have not successfully broken above the L2 dynamic resistance of the Symmetrical Triangle. Therefore, the consolidation of the KLCI remains intact. Resistance for the KLCI remains at 1095.91 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the supports are found at the Bollinger Middle Band followed by the 1035 Fibonacci Retracement.
As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded 4%, but not significant to give any signals. Nevertheless, with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook of the KLCI is still on the positive side. Therefore, if the Bollinger Bands Width should expand, the KLCI is likely to test the overhead resistance of 1095.91 Fibonacci Retracement.
Despite a sign of a possible expansion of the Bollinger Bands Width, total market volume remains low. As indicated by B, total market volume is still staying further below the 40-day VMA level, suggesting that the market participation is still insufficient, as investors' confidence remains low.
As circled at C, the Stochastic is still rising, while maintain above the 70% level, which is a short term bullish region. This suggests that the KLCI short term has not yet weakened, and provided that the Stochastic could remain above 70%, the short term movement of the KLCI is on the positive side.
In short, the KLCI is about to break above the L2 line, and the only important criteria missing is the increased of volume. If the KLCI should break above the L2 line without the support of volume above the 40-day VMA level, it would suggest a weaker rally, which is less likely to sustain.

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