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Wednesday, July 1, 2009

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 6月 30日 / Composite Index 30/06/2009

综合指数 2009年 6月 30日
如图所示,综合征指数再度精确在对称三角形(Symmetrical Triangle)的L2阻力线遇阻,所以综指未能摆脱盘整格局。综指阻力水平依然是1095.91点的胜图自动费氏线,支持水平则是布林中频带及1035点的胜图自动费氏线。
如图中箭头A所示,布林频带进一步收窄16%,这与对称三角形的巩固图形讯号一致,这确认综指目前依然处于盘整中。布林频带收窄时也表示综指正酝酿着一个新的走势,而新的走势必须等到布林频带重新打开时才能显示出来。
如图中箭头B所示,虽然马股总成交量周二增加46.8%,但依然未能达到40天的成交量平均线(VMA),这表示马股的交投依然属于淡静。换句话说,市场未能有足够的承接力来吸纳套利的卖压,所以综指未能转强,摆脱L2阻力,继续处于盘整中。
如图中C圈所示,随机指标(Stochastic)维持于70%水平,这是综指短期有望转强的讯号,不过,随机指标是属于辅助指标(Secondary Indicator),其讯号在综指调整巩固时往往会稍微过敏,所以目前的分析就必须以图形(对称三角形)为主。
总的来说,综指目前依然处于盘整格局中,加上周二下跌股项过于上升股项,而且大部分的热门股项都出现套利的现象,所以综指继续有调整巩固的迹象,暂时未能转强,直到成功上扬突破对称三角形及1095.91点的阻力水平为止。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 30/06/2009
As shown on the chart above, the KLCI remain resisted by the L2 line of the Symmetrical Triangle, and therefore, suggesting that the KLCI is still consolidating, with 1095.91 Fibonacci Retracement as the major resistance while the Bollinger Middle Band and the 1035 Fibonacci Retracement are the supports.
As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted another 16%, showing a similar signal as the Symmetrical Triangle, suggesting a consolidation for the KLCI. Meanwhile, the contraction of the Bollinger Bands Width also implies that the KLCI is preparing for a new movement, and the new movement shall only be revealed when the Bollinger Bands Width re-expands.
As indicated by B, total market volume increased 46.8%, but still below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the overall market is still relatively quiet as the inflow of fresh capital is still insufficient to off set the selling pressure. Therefore, the KLCI failed to regain its strength while still resisted by the L2 line.
As circled at C, the Stochastic remain above 70%, which is a short term bullish territory. However, during a consolidation stage of the KLCI, Secondary Indicators like Stochastic could be over-sensitive, and therefore, the priority of the analysis should based on chart analysis, in this case, the Symmetrical Triangle.
In short, the KLCI consolidation remains intact. With losers outnumbering the gainers, and also most of the most-active counters are showing sign of profit taking, the KLCI is less likely to pick up its strength until successfully breaking above the L2 line and 1095.91 Fibonacci Retracement.

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