TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Composite Index 12/03/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 03月 12日

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 12/03/2009

Due to heavy selling of some blue chips counters, the KLCI ended 11.98 points lower on Thursday to close at 838.39 points. As indicated by A, support for the KLCI is at 833 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance is at the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic resistance and the 853 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width continue to expand 11%, with the KLCI remained below the Bollinger Middle Band. Therefore, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still bearish biased.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 6.1%, and therefore, the volume is now below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the overall market participation is still insufficient, thus the KLCI is less likely to regain its strength in the absence of fresh leads.

As circled at C, the MACD histogram is still falling while no rounding bottom signal is sighted yet. Therefore, this suggests that the KLCI is still losing strength. If the MACD histogram should form a rounding bottom, it would be a signal suggesting a technical rebound for the KLCI.

As the Bollinger Bands Width is still expanding, it suggests that the downside volatility of the KLCI is still increasing, thus more downside room for the KLCI is expected. Therefore, unless the Bollinger Bands Width should contract, the bearish biased movement of the KLCI is expected to continue.

综合指数 2009年 03月 12日
由于重量级蓝筹股项受到卖压抛售，综合指数周四下跌11.98点或1.4%。如图中箭头A显示，综指目前的支持水平是833点的胜图自动费氏线，阻力水平落在853点，另外布林中频带则成为综指的动态阻力线

如图所示，布林频带打开的幅度为11%，这显示综指的跌势有延续的迹象，所以综指继续有下跌的风险。综指将继续维持目前的趋势，直到布林频带打开的幅度开始减低或收窄，届时综指才有望止跌从而出现技术反弹或横摆巩固的格局，否则综指的后市将继续看第一线。

如图中箭头B显示，马股的总成交量减退了6.1%，所以成交量再次的回到40天的成交量移动平均线（VMA）以下。这表示了市场仍然交投淡静，在没有足够的承接力的情形之下，综指暂时还是难以转强。

如图中C圈显示，平均乖离的震荡指标（MACD Histogram）继续的下滑，这表示综指短期的走势依然属于偏弱，直到震荡指标形成圆底（Rounding Bottom）为止。通常当平均乖离形成圆底的话，综指将有望出现技术反弹。

总的来说，由于布林频带继续打开，这表示了综指的跌势还未减退，换句话说，综指还是有下跌的风险，直到布林频带开始收窄为止。若综指出现技术反弹，那反弹的第一个目标将是布林中频带的动态阻力水平。