TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 综合指数 2009年 03月 10日 / Composite Index 10/03/2009

综合指数 2009年 03月 10日

如图中箭头A所示，综合指数周二跌破853点的胜图自动费氏线支持水平，一度下探至848.34点的全日最低点，惟综指随后回弹，继续的在853点获得扶持，按日微跌2.97点或0.3%。综指目前的支持水平依然是853点的胜图自动费氏线，阻力水平则是869点的胜图自动费氏线。

如图所示，综指周二的阴阳烛出现一条长的下影线（Lower Shadow Line），这表示虽然综指一度下跌，不过也有投资者趁低吸购，使到综指回弹，这显示综指有出现技术反弹的迹象。无论如何，由于布林频带（Bollinger Ban）还未开始收窄，所以综指能否出现技术回弹或进入巩固格局还是有待进一步确认。

如图中箭头B指示，马股总成交量增加了31.8%，但还未完全达到40天的成交量平均移动线（VMA）。这表示虽然成交量增加，不过市场整体的交投还是必须持续的增长，综指才能避开进入交投低迷的格局。换句话说，多数投资者目前依然保持谨慎的态度，继续场外观望。

如图中C圈指示，随机指标（Stochastic）在跌至10%水平后回弹，这是综指短期超卖的讯号，所以综指有技术反弹的迹象。无论如何，随机指标必须要上扬突破30%水平，综指的短期走势才有望开始转强。

综指虽然有反弹的迹象，但是若综指反弹后未能突破林中频带的话，那综指只能算是出现纯技术反弹而已，并不是综指转强的讯号。换句话说，综指必须要上扬突破布林中频带，再加上成交量达到40天的平均值，那综指才有望真正转强。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 10/03/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI had an intra-day low reaching 848.34 points before closing at 855.25 points. As a result, the KLCI formed a candlestick with a relatively long lower shadow line, thus suggested some bargain hunting activities. Generally, this is a candlestick suggesting a possible technical rebound.

Support for the KLCI is still at 853 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance is at 869 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands Width has not contracted, therefore, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still bearish biased.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 31.8% on Tuesday, but still below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market participation is still insufficient as investors are still being cautious while waiting on the sidelines.

As circled at C, the Stochastic rebounded slightly after entering below 10%, which is a short term over-sold signal. Therefore, the KLCI is likely to have a technical rebound. Nevertheless, the Stochastic has to break above 30% level in order to signal a beginning of the short term technical rebound.

Despite having a chance of a technical rebound, the KLCI is still below the Bollinger Middle Band. Therefore, if after the possible technical rebound, the KLCI still resisted below the Bollinger Middle Band, the bearish biased movement of the KLCI is still intact. Therefore, breaking above the Bollinger Middle Band with significant increased of volume is the most important signal, if the KLCI should break away from its bearish movement.