TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 综合指数 2009年 03月 06日 / Composite Index 06/03/2009

综合指数 2009年 03月 06日

如图中箭头A指示，综合指数的布林频带（Bollinger Bands）进一步打开10%，再加上综指还是处于布林中频带之下，所以综指继续下跌。接下来只要布林频带继续维持打开格局的话，这表示综指依然处于跌势中，直到布林频带开始收窄为止，届时将是综指进入横摆巩固或技术反弹的讯号。

综指接下来的支持水平落在853点的胜图自动费氏线，阻力水平则是869点的胜图自动费氏线及布林中频带的动态阻力水平。

如图中箭头B指示，马股总成交量减退了26%，所以成交量明显的处于40天平均值以下。这表示目前市场的交投仍然不足，投资者继续选择离场观望，再加上国内外依然缺乏有利因素，所以使到综指还是继续有转弱的风险。

如图中C圈指示，胜图强弱指标（WinChart RSI）跌破了30%的水平，进入中期弱势区域里，这表示综指中期的投资气氛逐渐转弱。一般上只要胜图强弱指标继续处于30%水平之下的话，那将表示综指中期走势疲弱。

总的来说，综指目前依然受到跌破三角形的不利讯号影响，继续着下跌的走势。另外，由于布林频带打开的幅度并未减少，所以综指目前也有进入巩固格局的迹象。无论如何，全球股市的表现将会继续的左右综指的走势，目前投资者宜采取谨慎、保守的策略，万勿对抗大势。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 06/03/2009

As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded another 10% on Friday, with the KLCI remained below the Bollinger Middle Band, and therefore, the KLCI failed to consolidate, and ended lower. Support for the KLCI is at 823 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance is at 869 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement as well as the Bollinger Middle Band dynamic resistance.

As indicated by B, total market volume declined 26%, with volume clearly below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market participation is indeed very low, coupled with the absence of positive sentiment, the KLCI movement is expected to remain weak.

As circled at C, the WinChart RSI fell below 30% level, entering the mid term bearish region. This suggests that the market sentiment for the mid term is now weak, and as long as the WinChart RSI is still below 30% level, the weakening KLCI movement is expected to continue.

With most of the markets across the globe performing negatively, the KLCI is expected to follow suit. Therefore, it would be highly risky to trade against the downside movement of the KLCI.