TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 综合指数 2009年 03月 05日 / Composite Index 05/03/2009

综合指数 2009年 03月 05日

由于隔夜美国道琼指数回弹，这使到综合指数避开进一步转弱，综指闭市微扬2.31点。如图中箭头A指示，综指还是在869点的水平遇阻，这表示869点的胜图自动费氏线依然是综指当前的阻力水平，支持水平则是853点的胜图自动费氏线。

如图所示，综指周四有出现拉回效应（Pull Back Effect）的迹象，通常拉回效应的目标将会是布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band），这也是技术反弹的阻力线。若综指接下来在布林中频带受阻的话，这表示综指依然属于弱势的讯号，那表示综指的后市还是有下跌的风险。

虽然周四马股的总成交量增加16.6%，但是成交量却未能突破40天的平均值，这表示市场目前缺乏足够的承接力，所以综指还是有倾向于横摆或疲弱的格局。（参考图中箭头B）

如图中C圈指示，随机指标（Stochastic）在跌至10%水平后反弹，这显示综指稍微回弹，

不过随机指标还是处于30%水平以下，这显示综指目前还是处于短期疲软的格局里。换句话说，除非随机指标能够上扬突破30%的水平，否则综指短期还是有下跌的风险。

虽然综指有开始形成拉回效应的迹象，但由于综指依然低于布林中频带之下，所以综指还是属于弱势中。无论如何，如果布林频带接下来开始收窄的话，那综指将有望止跌，进入横摆巩固的格局.
Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 05/03/2009
The KLCI gained marginally on Tuesday as the overnight Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounded. However, as indicated by A, the KLCI is still resisted by the 869 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement, and therefore, the 869 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement is still the resistance for the KLCI, while the support is still at 853 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the KLCI pull-back after being over-sold. Usually, the target of the pull-back effect is the Bollinger Middle Band, but if the KLCI should remain resisted by the Bollinger Middle Band, it means that the bearish movement of the KLCI is still intact.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 16.6%, but still below the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market participation is still relatively insufficient. Therefore, the KLCI is likely to consolidate with a bearish biased movement.

As circled at C, the Stochastic rebounded on Thursday after touching 10% level, but still, the Stochastic is staying below the 30% level, and the short term bearish movement remains in place for the KLCI.

Although the KLCI has started its pull-back effect, it is merely a form of technical rebound if the KLCI should stay below the Bollinger Middle Band. If the Bollinger Bands Width should contract, it would suggest another consolidation for the KLCI.

HAPPY TRADING!!!