TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 综合指数 2009年 03月 04日 / Composite Index 04/03/2009

综合指数 2009年 03月 04日

如图中箭头A指示，综合指数在投资者还在举棋不定时窄幅波动，这使到综指形成一个小阴阳烛（Small Candle）。如图所示，综指一度上探867点的胜图自动费氏线，惟由于缺乏成交量的扶持，综指随后精确的在867点遇阻，按日微跌1.81点。综指目前的阻力水平依然是867点的胜图自动费氏线，支持水平则是853点的胜图自动费氏线。

如图所示，综指依然处于20天的布林下频带（Bollinger Lower Band）中，这表示综指还是有出现拉回效应（Pull Back Effect）的可能，这是一种技术反弹的典型讯号，惟综指必须上扬突破10天布林中频带，综指才有望真正的出现转强的趋势。

如图中箭头B指示，马股的总成交量减少11.3%，所以成交量继续处于40天的平均值以下。这表示市场交投开始出现淡静的格局，这暗示投资者对综指的信心开始动摇，所以选择场外观望的态度。

如图中C圈指示，随机指标（Stochastic）还是处于30%水平之下，这是短期熊市区域，所以综指暂时还未出现技术反弹。若随机指标持续处于30%水平以下的话，那综指短期的走势则有继续转入的风险。

综指虽然有望出现拉回效应，但由于综指继续处于布林中频带之下，再加上市场还是缺乏足够的承接力（成交量），所以综指短期还有下跌的风险，直到随机指标上扬突破30%为止。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 04/03/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI attempted to break above the 869 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement, but failed. Therefore, the 869 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement is still the resistance for the KLCI while the support is at 853 Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the KLCI is still at the border line of the 20-Bollinger lower band, and therefore, there is still a chance for a pull-back.

As indicated by B, total market volume decline 11.3%, while the volume continue to stay below the 40-day VMA level. This not only shows that the market participation is low, it also implies that investors confidence is also low in general. Therefore, the KLCI is less likely to pick up any strength.

As circled at C, the Stochastic remain below 30% level, which is the short term bearish region. With the Stochastic below 30% level, the short term market movement for the KLCI is expected to be bearish biased.

In conclusion, the market overall market sentiment is still weak, as the market is lightly participated. Despite having a chance for a pull-back, the KLCI is still below the Bollinger Middle Band, and therefore, the outlook for the KLCI is still bearish biased.

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