综合指数 2009年 02月 27日 / Composite Index 27/02/2009

综合指数 2009年 02月 27日

如图中箭头A所示，综合指数精确的在布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）遇上到阻力后而回软，惟综指再度在对称三角形（Symmetrical Tri）的L1获得扶持，按日微跌跌2.75点或0.3%。综指目前的支持水平依然是885的胜图自动费氏线，阻力水平则是905点的胜图自动费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带（Bollinger Bands）开始打开了6%，虽然这打开的幅度不算明显，但是由于综指继续处于布林中频带之下，所以若布林频带接下来继续打开的话，那综指将有下跌的风险。

如图中箭头B指示，马股总成交量增加21.3%，这使到成交量达到了40天的成交量平均值，这表示了市场的交投开始活跃起来。无论如何，若综指跌破L1线时成交量继续增加的话，那将表示市场的卖压（Selling Pressure）增加，届时将加剧综指的跌势。

如图中C圈指示，随机指标（Stochastic）稍微跌破了30%水平，有进入短期的弱势区域的迹象。换句话说，若随机指标接下来继续下跌的话，那综指短期的走势将有转弱的讯号。

总的来说，市场依然缺乏明确的因素，所以综指继续调整巩固。无论如何，布林频带开始有打开的迹象，再加上综指已经非常接近突破对称三角形了，所以综指有望在近期内出现酝酿已久的新走势。

Composite Index Daily Technical Analysis 27/02/2009
As indicated by A, the KLCI ended lower after resisted by the Bollinger Middle Band on Friday; however, it was supported precisely at the L1 line of the Symmetrical Triangle, closing 2.75 points lower to 890.67 points. Support for the KLCI remains at 885 Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance is still at 905 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded 6%, and still the expansion was insignificant to suggest any signal yet. Nevertheless, if the Bollinger Bands Width should continue to expand with the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band, the outlook for the KLCI would turn bearish biased.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 21.3%, with the volume touching the 40-day VMA level. This shows that the market participation was relatively active on Friday. If the KLCI should fall with relatively higher volume, it would suggest an increased of selling pressure.

As circled at C, the Stochastic is breaking below 30% level again, entering the short term bearish region. If the Stochastic should remain below 30% level, the market movement for the short term is expected to be bearish biased.

In conclusion, due to the uncertain market sentiment, the KLCI remained in its consolidation in the Symmetrical Triangle. Nevertheless, with the Bollinger Bands Width about to expands and the KLCI being so closed to the tip of the triangle, the consolidation of the KLCI is expected to end soon.