TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 30/09/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 9月 30日

Composite Index 30/09/2009

As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded 11%, with the FBMKLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band, the KLCI ended 6.13 points lower, closing at 1202.08 points. Despite the intra-day losses, the KLCI is still supported by the 1200 level, and therefore, the 1200 psychological support level remains intact while the resistance is at 1248 Fibonacci Retracement.
As shown on the chart, the Bollinger Bands Width expanding with the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band is a bearish signal, and therefore, the KLCI has to return to above the Bollinger Middle Band as soon as possible, or else, if the Bollinger Bands Width should expand further while the KLCI below the Bollinger Middle Band, more downside risk is expected for the KLCI.
As indicated by B, total market volume increased 16.7%, despite the KLCI falling. However, volume is still below the 40-day VMA level. Generally, it is best if volume should stay relatively lower during a downtrend, for it suggests that the selling pressure is not too strong. However, if the KLCI should resume its uptrend, a relatively higher volume is required to sustain the rally.
As circled at C, the Stochastic ended lower, even breaking below 10% level. This shows that the short term movement of the KLCI is indeed weak, but it now now over-sold, suggesting that the KLCI might have a technical rebound in the near future. Nevertheless, the Stochastic has to break above 30% in order for the KLCI to break away from the short term bearish region.
Technically speaking, the immediate outlook for the KLCI is still on the weaker side, unless a valid break out above the Bollinger Middle Band. Still, the KLCI is testing its 1200 support level, and with the Stochastic showing a sign of a possible technical rebound, the KLCI is due for a rebound. But a rebound is insufficient for the KLCI to break away from its current bearish biased movement. Therefore, a valid break out above the Bollinger Middle Band is imperative if the KLCI should break away from its weaker movement.

综合指数 2009年 9月 30日

如图中箭头A所示，由于布林频带（Bollinger Bands）开始打开11%，而富时综合指数则已经处于布林中频带以下，所以综指下滑6.13点，以1202.08点闭市。虽然综指开始下滑，惟综指精确的在1200点的心理支持水平获得扶持，所以1200点成为综指当前的支持水平，阻力水平则仍然是1248点的费氏线。
如图所示，布林频带打开的确显示综指有进一步走低的风险，换句话说，综指接下来必须尽快回弹，收复失地，并且上扬突破布林中频带，那综指才能避开形成跌势。另一方面，只要综指一日处于布林中频带以下，布林频带继续打开意味着综指将继续下滑，直到布林频带打开的幅度开始减少为止。
如图中箭头B所示，虽然综指下滑，不过成交量却反而上扬16.7%，惟成交量仍然未能达到40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平。一般上，综指在下跌时，成交量不宜过高，因为这将意味着跌势凶猛，不过在综指上扬时，成交量则需达到40天平均值，才能算是一个强稳且持久的涨势。
如图中C圈所示，随机指标（Stochastic）再度下跌，并且跌破了10%的水平，这显示综指的短期走势有超卖的迹象，有望出现技术反弹，无论如何，随机指标还是必须上扬突破30%的水平，综指的跌势才能算结束。
技术上，从布林频带打开来看，综指有开始转弱的迹象，除非综指能在短期内回弹至布林中频带以上，或布林频带立即停止打开。无论如何综指目前接近1200点的心理扶持水平，而随机指标则显示综指有出现技术反弹的可能，所以综指并非完全没有机会避开跌势，惟综指还是必须上扬突破布林中频带，才能成功扳回下跌的趋势。