TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 9月 10日 / Composite Index 10/09/2009

综合指数 2009年 9月 10日

如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数一度上探至1210点，惟综指再度在套利活动下回软，综指以1201.28点闭市，成功守住1200点的心理水平。接下来若综指能继续维持在1200点以上的话，综指在获得扶持下，将有望上探更高的水平，综指第一道的阻力是1248点的费氏线。

如图所示，布林频带打开的幅度为11%，这比周三的14%减少了，所以综指并未大举上扬。无论如何，只要综指能继续维持在布林中频带以上的话，那综指将有望维持当前的涨势，直到综指跌破布林中频带为止。

如图中箭头B所示，成交量稍微增长，惟还是未能达到40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平，这表示市场仍然缺乏足够的交投量，所以综指涨势后继不足。换句话说，成交量必须继续的增加，在达到40天平均值后，综指继续走高的几率才能进一步提高。

随机指标（Stochastic）稍微回弹，成功的保持在70%以上的水平（参考箭头C），这是目前一个重要的指标，因为若随机指标跌破70%的话，这将意味着综指的短期走势转弱，综指的技术调整将有持续的风险。

基本上，综指一度出现上扬的趋势，惟随后在套利活动下回软，所以综指目前还是处于一个技术调整巩固的格局。无论如何，由于综指继续处于布林中频带及14、21、31天加权移动平均线（EMA）以上，所以只要布林频带接下来进一步打开，那综指将有望恢复上扬的趋势。

Composite Index 10/09/2009

As indicated by A, the FBMKLCI has its daily high reaching 1210 points, but profit taking pushes it lower to close at 1201.28 points. As a result, the KLCI stays above the 1200 level, and if the KLCI should remain supported by 1200 level, it is likely that the KLCI would test the next resistance at 1248 Fibonacci Retracement.

As shown on the chart above, the Bollinger Bands Width expanded 11%, which is slightly slower than the 14% expansion on Wednesday, as a result, the KLCI failed to rally. However, provided that the KLCI is still above the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate outlook for the KLCI shall remains bullish biased.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased slightly, but still has not broken above the 40-day VMA level. Therefore, the overall market participation is still insufficient, which in turn, suggesting that the KLCI rally is rather weak. In other words, the KLCI movement will be stronger if volume should increased and break above the 40-day VMA level.

As circled at C, the Stochastic rebounded slightly, while still above the 70% level. This is an important signal for if the Stochastic should break below the 70% level, it would be a signal suggesting an end to the short term bullishness of the KLCI.

Currently, the KLCI is having a mild technical correction as profit taking takes place. However, with the 14, 21, 31 EMA still supporting the KLCI, the KLCI uptrend remains intact, and if the Bollinger Bands Width should expand further, more upside room is expected for the KLCI.