TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 03/09/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 9月 03日

Composite Index 03/09/2009
The KLCI rebound again today, and this has brought the KLCI back to above the Bollinger Middle Band (refer to arrow A); this is a significant rebound for if the KLCI should remain below the Bollinger Middle Band, when the Bollinger Bands started to expand, the KLCI would form a downtrend.

As shown in the chart, the Bollinger Bands briefly expanded 2%, and the KLCI has returned to above the Bollinger Middle Band; therefore, should the Bollinger Bands starts to expand with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, it means that the KLCI will be on an uptrend. Currently the KLCI support level is still standing at 1163 pt 1163 Fibonacci Retracement (FR), while the resistance remains at 1186 pt FR.

As indicated by arrow B, the volume traded improved 13.3%, but it is still unable to reach the 40 days Volume Moving Average (VMA); normally, volume traded has to be at least at the level of 40 days VMA, together with Bollinger Bands bullish signal to confirm a strong bull run for the KLCI.

Finally, the Stochastic breaks above the 70%, entering the short term bullish territory. This shows that the KLCI is picking up some (short term) strength, and this signal is yet to be confirmed by the expansion of the Bollinger Bands.

The KLCI returning to above the Bollinger Middle Band is very important for the outlook of the KLCI, for if the KLCI could return to above the Bollinger Middle Band, there is a chance for the KLCI to pickup its strength. In short, what we need is the re-expansion of the Bollinger Bands Width with the KLCI remain above the Bollinger Middle Band. Meanwhile, the 14, 21, 31 EMA is still supporting the KLCI and therefore, the KLCI resuming its uptrend is potentially high.

综合指数 2009年 9月 03日

如图中箭头A所示，富时综合指数进一步回弹，使到综指成功重新回到布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以上，这是一个重要的回弹，因为接下来若布林频带（Bollinger Band）开始打开时，综指依然处于布林中频带以下的话，综指将开始下跌。

如图所示，布林频带目前稍微打开了2%，而综指重新返回布林中频带以上，所以接下来若布林频带开始明显的打开，而综指又能成功维持在布林中频带以上，那综指将会形成一个上扬的趋势。综指当前的支持水平依然落在1163点的费氏线，阻力水平也依然处于1186点的费氏线。

如图中箭头B所示，马股成交量增加13.3%，惟还是未达到40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平；一般上，成交量必须上扬达到40天平均值以上，再配合布林频带开始明显的打开，综指上扬的趋势将更显著。
随机指标（Stochastic）终于上扬突破了70%的水平，所以综指的短期走势转强，目前只等待布林频带开始打开的讯号，就能确认此短期上扬的趋势了。

综指重新返回布林中频带的水平意义是非常重大的，因为这显示综指并未完全失去上扬的机会，目前只要布林频带开始明显的打开，综指将有望结束横摆巩固而转为上扬的趋势。另一方面，14、21、31天的加权移动平均线（EMA）也继续的扶持着综指，所以只要综指一日不跌破此EMA，综指转强的机会依然浓厚。