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Friday, September 4, 2009

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> Composite Index 03/09/2009 / 综合指数 2009年 9月 03日

Composite Index 03/09/2009
The KLCI rebound again today, and this has brought the KLCI back to above the Bollinger Middle Band (refer to arrow A); this is a significant rebound for if the KLCI should remain below the Bollinger Middle Band, when the Bollinger Bands started to expand, the KLCI would form a downtrend.
As shown in the chart, the Bollinger Bands briefly expanded 2%, and the KLCI has returned to above the Bollinger Middle Band; therefore, should the Bollinger Bands starts to expand with the KLCI above the Bollinger Middle Band, it means that the KLCI will be on an uptrend. Currently the KLCI support level is still standing at 1163 pt 1163 Fibonacci Retracement (FR), while the resistance remains at 1186 pt FR.

As indicated by arrow B, the volume traded improved 13.3%, but it is still unable to reach the 40 days Volume Moving Average (VMA); normally, volume traded has to be at least at the level of 40 days VMA, together with Bollinger Bands bullish signal to confirm a strong bull run for the KLCI.

Finally, the Stochastic breaks above the 70%, entering the short term bullish territory. This shows that the KLCI is picking up some (short term) strength, and this signal is yet to be confirmed by the expansion of the Bollinger Bands.

The KLCI returning to above the Bollinger Middle Band is very important for the outlook of the KLCI, for if the KLCI could return to above the Bollinger Middle Band, there is a chance for the KLCI to pickup its strength. In short, what we need is the re-expansion of the Bollinger Bands Width with the KLCI remain above the Bollinger Middle Band. Meanwhile, the 14, 21, 31 EMA is still supporting the KLCI and therefore, the KLCI resuming its uptrend is potentially high.

综合指数 2009年 9月 03日
如图中箭头A所示,富时综合指数进一步回弹,使到综指成功重新回到布林中频带(Bollinger Middle Band)以上,这是一个重要的回弹,因为接下来若布林频带(Bollinger Band)开始打开时,综指依然处于布林中频带以下的话,综指将开始下跌。




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