TECHNICAL ANALYSIS >>> 综合指数 2009年 9月 17日 / Composite Index 17/09/2009

综合指数 2009年 9月 17日

如图中箭头A所示，虽然富时隆综合指数一度上扬至1220.47点的新高，惟在布林频带（Bollinger Bands）进一步收窄的影响下，综指收窄涨幅，按日只上扬5.82点，以1218.8点闭市。综指当前的阻力水平仍然处于1248点的费氏线，支持水平则落在1200点的心理支持水平。

如图所示，布林频带收窄8%，所以综指并未出现大力上扬的趋势，所幸的是综指始终保持在布林中频带（Bollinger Middle Band）以上，所以综指上扬的趋势仍然存在，只是幅度较为小。一般上，只要综指能在布林中频带中获得扶持的话，综指将有望更上一层楼。

如图箭头B所示，马股总成交量增加8.6%，终于上扬突破了40天成交量移动平均线（VMA）的水平，这显示投资者已经开始回流，并且蠢蠢欲动，这对综指的后市有着正面的作用；因为当综指出现上扬趋势时，成交量高于40天平均值意味着市场承接力量足够，所以那将使到综指上扬的趋势更为持久。

如图中箭头C所示，随机指标（Stochastic）继续处于70%以上，所以综指的短期走势偏于强势；通常综指将能维持目前偏向上扬的格局，直到随机指标跌破70%为止。

总的来说，综指上扬的趋势并未受到破坏，而且在成交量成功增加至40天平均值的配合下，综指已经有上扬的条件。目前只等待布林频带能开始打开，那综指将有望恢复上扬的趋势。无论如何，接下来若布林频带进一步收窄的话，这将意味着综指上扬的时机还未出现，所以综指有维持调整巩固的迹象。

Composite Index 17/09/2009

As indicated by A, the KLCI only rose 5.82 points despite having its daily high reaching yet another new high of 1220.47 points, closing at 1218.80 points. This is because the Bollinger Bands Width is contracting. Resistance for the KLCI remains at 1248 Fibonacci Retracement while the support is at 1200 psychological level.

As shown on the chart, the Bollinger Bands Width contracted 8%, and therefore, limiting the upside room of the KLCI. Fortunately, the KLCI remains above the Bollinger Middle Band, and the immediate outlook is still positive.

As indicated by B, total market volume increased 8.6%, breaking above the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that the inflow of fresh capital has increased as investors participation is increasing. Therefore, this is a positive element to the KLCI uptrend, and if volume should remain above the 40-day VMA level, the uptrend of the KLCI is more likely to be sustainable.

As indicated by C, the Stochastic is still above 70%, and the short term movement of the KLCI is still bullish biased. The bullish short term movement of the KLCI is expected to continue until the Stochastic should break below 70%.

In conclusion, the uptrend of the KLCI remains intact. With volume returning to above 40-day VMA level, the market sentiment is likely to improve. Therefore, the only confirmation is the re-expansion of the Bollinger Bands Width. Nonetheless, if the Bollinger Bands Width should continue to contract, the KLCI would be consolidating.